Prognostic nomograms for predicting cause-specific survival and overall survival of stage I–III colon cancer patients: a large population-based study

Abstract

Background

The purpose of this study was to build functional nomograms based on significant clinicopathological features to predict cause-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) in patients with stage I–III colon cancer.

Methods

Data on patients diagnosed with stage I–III colon cancer between 2010 and 2015 were downloaded from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were used to identify independent prognostic factors, which were used to construct nomograms to predict the probabilities of CSS and OS. The performance of the nomogram was assessed by C-indexes, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration curves. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to compare clinical usage between the nomogram and the tumor–node–metastasis (TNM) staging system.

Results

Based on the univariate and multivariate analyses, features that correlated with survival outcomes were used to establish nomograms for CSS and OS prediction. The nomograms showed favorable sensitivity at predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS and OS, with a C-index of 0.78 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.77–0.80) for CSS and 0.74 (95% CI 0.73–0.75) for OS. Calibration curves and ROC curves revealed excellent predictive accuracy. The clinically and statistically significant prognostic performance of the nomogram generated with the entire group of patients and risk scores was validated by a stratified analysis. DCA showed that the nomograms were more clinically useful than TNM stage.

Conclusion

Novel nomograms based on significant clinicopathological characteristics were developed and can be used as a tool for clinicians to predict CSS and OS in stage I–III colon cancer patients. These models could help facilitate a personalized postoperative evaluation.