Metabolic syndrome has been linked with various atherosclerotic diseases, but has not been evaluated sufficiently as a risk factor for the development of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in the general population. We followed up 1,440 community-dwelling individuals without CKD aged 40 years or older for 5 years and examined the effects of metabolic syndrome, defined by the modified National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III criteria, on the development of CKD. During follow-up, 88 subjects experienced CKD. The age- and sex-adjusted 5-year cumulative incidence of CKD was significantly greater in subjects with than without metabolic syndrome (10.6% versus 4.8%; P < 0.01). In multivariate analysis, even after adjustment for other confounding factors, including insulinemia, metabolic syndrome remained an independent risk factor for the occurrence of CKD (odds ratio, 2.08; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.23 to 3.52). Compared with subjects with 1 or fewer metabolic syndrome component, multivariate-adjusted odd ratios for CKD in subjects with 2, 3, and 4 or more metabolic syndrome components were 1.13 (95% CI, 0.60 to 2.12), 1.90 (95% CI, 0.98 to 3.69), and 2.79 (95% CI, 1.32 to 5.90), respectively. The rate of change in kidney function during 5 years decreased significantly in subjects with 4 or more metabolic syndrome components compared with those with 1 or fewer component in the age group of 40 to 59 years, whereas it also was significantly low in subjects with 3 metabolic syndrome components in the group aged 60 years or older. Our findings suggest that metabolic syndrome is a significant risk factor for the development of CKD in the general population.
