Climate change threatens the world’s marine protected areas

Anthropogenically induced global climate change has profound implications for marine ecosystems and the economic and social systems that depend upon them. The relationship between temperature and individual performance is reasonably well understood, and much climate-related research has focused on potential shifts in distribution and abundance driven directly by temperature. However, recent work has revealed that both abiotic changes and biological responses in the ocean will be substantially more complex. For example, changes in ocean chemistry may be more important than changes in temperature for the performance and survival of many organisms. Ocean circulation, which drives larval transport, will also change, with important consequences for population dynamics. Furthermore, climatic impacts on one or a few 'leverage species' may result in sweeping community-level changes. Finally, synergistic effects between climate and other anthropogenic variables, particularly fishing pressure, will likely exacerbate climate-induced changes. Efforts to manage and conserve living marine systems in the face of climate change will require improvements to the existing predictive framework. Key directions for future research include identifying key demographic transitions that influence population dynamics, predicting changes in the community-level impacts of ecologically dominant species, incorporating populations' ability to evolve (adapt), and understanding the scales over which climate will change and living systems will respond.

Observations of climate impacts on ecosystems highlight the need for an understanding of organismal thermal ranges and their implications at the ecosystem level. Where changes in aquatic animal populations have been observed, the integrative concept of oxygen- and capacity-limited thermal tolerance (OCLTT) has successfully characterised the onset of thermal limits to performance and field abundance. The OCLTT concept addresses the molecular to whole-animal mechanisms that define thermal constraints on the capacity for oxygen supply to the organism in relation to oxygen demand. The resulting 'total excess aerobic power budget' supports an animal's performance (e.g. comprising motor activity, reproduction and growth) within an individual's thermal range. The aerobic power budget is often approximated through measurements of aerobic scope for activity (i.e. the maximum difference between resting and the highest exercise-induced rate of oxygen consumption), whereas most animals in the field rely on lower (i.e. routine) modes of activity. At thermal limits, OCLTT also integrates protective mechanisms that extend time-limited tolerance to temperature extremes - mechanisms such as chaperones, anaerobic metabolism and antioxidative defence. Here, we briefly summarise the OCLTT concept and update it by addressing the role of routine metabolism. We highlight potential pitfalls in applying the concept and discuss the variables measured that led to the development of OCLTT. We propose that OCLTT explains why thermal vulnerability is highest at the whole-animal level and lowest at the molecular level. We also discuss how OCLTT captures the thermal constraints on the evolution of aquatic animal life and supports an understanding of the benefits of transitioning from water to land.