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      Informing climate-health adaptation options through mapping the needs and potential for integrated climate-driven early warning forecasting systems in South Asia—A scoping review

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          Abstract

          Background

          Climate change is widely recognised to threaten human health, wellbeing and livelihoods, including through its effects on the emergence, spread and burdens of climate–and water-sensitive infectious diseases. However, the scale and mechanisms of the impacts are uncertain and it is unclear whether existing forecasting capacities will foster successful local-level adaptation planning, particularly in climate vulnerable regions in developing countries. The purpose of this scoping review was to characterise and map priority climate- and water-sensitive diseases, map existing forecasting and surveillance systems in climate and health sectors and scope out the needs and potential to develop integrated climate-driven early warning forecasting systems for long-term adaptation planning and interventions in the south Asia region.

          Methods

          We searched Web of Science Core Collection, Scopus and PubMed using title, abstract and keywords only for papers focussing on climate-and water-sensitive diseases and explicit mention of either forecasting or surveillance systems in south Asia. We conducted further internet search of relevant national climate adaptation plans and health policies affecting disease management. We identified 187 studies reporting on climate-sensitive diseases and information systems in the south Asia context published between 1992 and 2024.

          Results

          We found very few robust, evidenced-based forecasting systems for climate- and water- sensitive infectious diseases, which suggests limited operationalisation of decision-support tools that could inform actions to reduce disease burdens in the region. Many of the information systems platforms identified focussed on climate-sensitive vector-borne disease systems, with limited tools for water-sensitive diseases. This reveals an opportunity to develop tools for these neglected disease groups. Of the 34 operational platforms identified across the focal countries, only 13 (representing 38.2%) are freely available online and all were developed and implemented by the human health sector. Tools are needed for other south Asian countries (Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Bhutan) where the risks of infectious diseases are predicted to increase substantially due to climate change, drought and shifts in human demography and use of ecosystems.

          Conclusion

          Altogether, the findings highlight clear opportunities to invest in the co-development and implementation of contextually relevant climate-driven early warning tools and research priorities for disease control and adaptation planning.

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          Most cited references80

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          PRISMA 2020 explanation and elaboration: updated guidance and exemplars for reporting systematic reviews

          The methods and results of systematic reviews should be reported in sufficient detail to allow users to assess the trustworthiness and applicability of the review findings. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement was developed to facilitate transparent and complete reporting of systematic reviews and has been updated (to PRISMA 2020) to reflect recent advances in systematic review methodology and terminology. Here, we present the explanation and elaboration paper for PRISMA 2020, where we explain why reporting of each item is recommended, present bullet points that detail the reporting recommendations, and present examples from published reviews. We hope that changes to the content and structure of PRISMA 2020 will facilitate uptake of the guideline and lead to more transparent, complete, and accurate reporting of systematic reviews.
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            Over half of known human pathogenic diseases can be aggravated by climate change

            It is relatively well accepted that climate change can affect human pathogenic diseases; however, the full extent of this risk remains poorly quantified. Here we carried out a systematic search for empirical examples about the impacts of ten climatic hazards sensitive to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on each known human pathogenic disease. We found that 58% (that is, 218 out of 375) of infectious diseases confronted by humanity worldwide have been at some point aggravated by climatic hazards; 16% were at times diminished. Empirical cases revealed 1,006 unique pathways in which climatic hazards, via different transmission types, led to pathogenic diseases. The human pathogenic diseases and transmission pathways aggravated by climatic hazards are too numerous for comprehensive societal adaptations, highlighting the urgent need to work at the source of the problem: reducing GHG emissions.
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              Strategic roles for behaviour change communication in a changing malaria landscape

              Strong evidence suggests that quality strategic behaviour change communication (BCC) can improve malaria prevention and treatment behaviours. As progress is made towards malaria elimination, BCC becomes an even more important tool. BCC can be used 1) to reach populations who remain at risk as transmission dynamics change (e.g. mobile populations), 2) to facilitate identification of people with asymptomatic infections and their compliance with treatment, 3) to inform communities of the optimal timing of malaria control interventions, and 4) to explain changing diagnostic concerns (e.g. increasing false negatives as parasite density and multiplicity of infections fall) and treatment guidelines. The purpose of this commentary is to highlight the benefits and value for money that BCC brings to all aspects of malaria control, and to discuss areas of operations research needed as transmission dynamics change.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Formal analysisRole: Funding acquisitionRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: Project administrationRole: SoftwareRole: SupervisionRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Data curationRole: Formal analysisRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: SoftwareRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Data curationRole: Formal analysisRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Formal analysisRole: MethodologyRole: SoftwareRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: InvestigationRole: Project administrationRole: SupervisionRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Formal analysisRole: Funding acquisitionRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: Project administrationRole: SupervisionRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Editor
                Journal
                PLoS One
                PLoS One
                plos
                PLOS ONE
                Public Library of Science (San Francisco, CA USA )
                1932-6203
                24 October 2024
                2024
                : 19
                : 10
                : e0309757
                Affiliations
                [001] UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, United Kingdom
                International University of Business Agriculture and Technology, BANGLADESH
                Author notes

                Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

                Author information
                https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2675-9464
                Article
                PONE-D-24-09817
                10.1371/journal.pone.0309757
                11500899
                39446805
                ce7d9a7d-e4ef-4ab3-9383-f2f6b1bf3e4d
                © 2024 Asaaga et al

                This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

                History
                : 12 March 2024
                : 13 August 2024
                Page count
                Figures: 7, Tables: 1, Pages: 24
                Funding
                Funded by: funder-id http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000270, Natural Environment Research Council;
                Award ID: National Capability
                Award Recipient :
                The research was funded by NERC as part of National Capability. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
                Categories
                Research Article
                Earth Sciences
                Atmospheric Science
                Climatology
                Climate Change
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Medical Conditions
                Parasitic Diseases
                Malaria
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Medical Conditions
                Tropical Diseases
                Malaria
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Health Care
                Health Care Policy
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Medical Conditions
                Tropical Diseases
                Neglected Tropical Diseases
                Dengue Fever
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Medical Conditions
                Infectious Diseases
                Viral Diseases
                Dengue Fever
                People and Places
                Geographical Locations
                Asia
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Epidemiology
                Medical Risk Factors
                Research and Analysis Methods
                Mathematical and Statistical Techniques
                Statistical Methods
                Forecasting
                Physical Sciences
                Mathematics
                Statistics
                Statistical Methods
                Forecasting
                People and Places
                Geographical Locations
                Asia
                Bangladesh
                Custom metadata
                All relevant data are within the manuscript and its Supporting information files.

                Uncategorized
                Uncategorized

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