Propagation thresholds and driving mechanism detection of karst meteorological- agricultural drought: A case study in Guizhou Province

Abstract

It is significant to systematically quantify the propagation thresholds of meteorological drought to different levels of agricultural drought in karst areas, and revealit’s the propagation driving mechanisms. This can guide early warning and fine management of agricultural drought. In this study,we selected Guizhou Province as an example. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and standardized soil moisture index (SSI) were used to characterize meteorological and agricultural drought. The run theory was used to identify, merge and eliminate drought events. The maximum correlation coefficient was used to capture the propagation time of meteorological-agricultural drought. The regression models were used to quantify the propagation intensity threshold from meteorological drought to different levels of agricultural drought. Finally, the propagation threshold driving mechanism was explored using geographical detectors. The results show that: (1) in terms of temporal variations during the past 21 years, regional meteorological drought had a shorter duration and a higher intensity than agricultural drought, Particularly, 2011 was a year of severe drought, and agricultural drought was significantly alleviated after 2014. (2) In terms of spatial variations, the "long duration area" of meteorological drought duration showed an "S" shaped distribution in the northeast, and the "short duration area" showed a point-like distribution. The overall duration of agricultural drought showed a spatial distribution of northeast to “medium-high in the northeast and low in the southwest. (3) The drought propagation time showed an alternating distribution of "valley-peak-valley-peak" from southeast to northwest. In terms of propagation intensity thresholds, light drought showed an overall spatial distribution of high in the east and low in the west. Moderate, severe, and extreme droughts showed a spatial distribution of low in the center north of southern Guizhou) and high in the borders. (4) There was a strong spatial coupling relationship between karst development intensity, altitude and meteorological-agricultural drought propagation thresholds. The interaction of different factors exhibited a two-factor enhancement and nonlinear enhancement on the propagation threshold. This indicates that synergistic effects of different factors on the propagation threshold were larger than single-factor effects.