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      Pacific decadal oscillation causes fewer near-equatorial cyclones in the North Indian Ocean

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          Abstract

          Tropical cyclones do not form easily near the equator but can intensify rapidly, leaving little time for preparation. We investigate the number of near-equatorial (originating between 5°N and 11°N) tropical cyclones over the north Indian Ocean during post-monsoon season (October to December) over the past 60 years. The study reveals a marked 43% decline in the number of such cyclones in recent decades (1981–2010) compared to earlier (1951–1980). Here, we show this decline in tropical cyclone frequency is primarily due to the weakened low-level vorticity modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and increased vertical wind shear. In the presence of low-latitude basin-wide warming and a favorable phase of the PDO, both the intensity and frequency of such cyclones are expected to increase. Such dramatic and unique changes in tropical cyclonic activity due to the interplay between natural variability and climate change call for appropriate planning and mitigation strategies.

          Abstract

          The north Indian Ocean is a hotbed for Low Latitude Cyclones (LLCs; originating between 5°N and 11°N). This study finds a remarkable decline in the frequency of LLCs in recent decades modulated by the remote influence of Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

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          The ERA5 Global Reanalysis

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            The Definition of El Niño

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              The International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS)

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Ajaya.Mohan@nyu.edu
                Journal
                Nat Commun
                Nat Commun
                Nature Communications
                Nature Publishing Group UK (London )
                2041-1723
                28 August 2023
                28 August 2023
                2023
                : 14
                : 5099
                Affiliations
                [1 ]GRID grid.440573.1, ISNI 0000 0004 1755 5934, Arabian Center for Climate and Environmental Sciences, , New York University Abu Dhabi, ; Abu Dhabi, UAE
                [2 ]GRID grid.14709.3b, ISNI 0000 0004 1936 8649, Department of Civil Engineering, , McGill University, ; Montreal, Canada
                [3 ]Department of Meteorology, Abu Dhabi Polytechnic, Institute of Applied Technology, Abu Dhabi, UAE
                [4 ]GRID grid.255966.b, ISNI 0000 0001 2229 7296, Meteorology, , Florida Institute of Technology, ; Melbourne, FL USA
                [5 ]GRID grid.266100.3, ISNI 0000 0001 2107 4242, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, , University of California San Diego, ; San Diego, CA USA
                [6 ]GRID grid.466772.6, ISNI 0000 0004 0498 1600, Climate Research and Services, , India Meteorological Department, ; Pune, India
                [7 ]GRID grid.466772.6, ISNI 0000 0004 0498 1600, India Meteorological Department, ; New Delhi, India
                [8 ]GRID grid.451303.0, ISNI 0000 0001 2218 3491, Atmospheric Science & Global Change Division, , Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, ; Richland, WA USA
                [9 ]GRID grid.411771.5, ISNI 0000 0001 2189 9308, Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research, , Cochin University of Science and Technology, ; Kochi, India
                [10 ]GRID grid.453080.a, ISNI 0000 0004 0635 5283, Ministry of Earth Sciences, ; New Delhi, India
                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6444-4837
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4513-4905
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8924-1852
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3676-1325
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0706-2629
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3000-2459
                Article
                40642
                10.1038/s41467-023-40642-x
                10462712
                37640712
                cd3d5316-3a33-4470-ad15-4b7fb96a1308
                © Springer Nature Limited 2023

                Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

                History
                : 9 March 2022
                : 3 August 2023
                Funding
                Funded by: FundRef https://doi.org/10.13039/501100001851, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES);
                Award ID: MM/SERP/NYU/2014/SSC-01/002
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: FundRef https://doi.org/10.13039/100012025, New York University Abu Dhabi;
                Award ID: CG009
                Award Recipient :
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                © Springer Nature Limited 2023

                Uncategorized
                climate sciences,atmospheric dynamics
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                climate sciences, atmospheric dynamics

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