The traditional theory of ductile fracture has limitations for predicting crack generation during a cold shell nosing process. Various damage criteria are employed to explain fracture and failure in the nose part of a cold shell. In this study, differences in microstructure among fractured materials and analysis of their surfaces indicated the occurrence of brittle fractures. The degree of “plastic deformation-induced embrittlement” (PDIE) of plastically deformable materials affects the likelihood of brittle fractures; PDIE can also decrease the strength in tension due to the Bauschinger effect. Two indicators of brittle fracture are presented, i.e., the critical value of PDIE and the allowable tensile strength (which in turn depends on the degree of PDIE or embrittlement-effective strain). When the maximum principal stress is greater than the latter and the PDIE is greater than the former, our method determines the likelihood of brittle fracture. This approach was applied to an actual cold shell nosing process, and the predictions were in good quantitative agreement with the experimental results.