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      Locally Downscaled and Spatially Customizable Climate Data for Historical and Future Periods for North America

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          Abstract

          Large volumes of gridded climate data have become available in recent years including interpolated historical data from weather stations and future predictions from general circulation models. These datasets, however, are at various spatial resolutions that need to be converted to scales meaningful for applications such as climate change risk and impact assessments or sample-based ecological research. Extracting climate data for specific locations from large datasets is not a trivial task and typically requires advanced GIS and data management skills. In this study, we developed a software package, ClimateNA, that facilitates this task and provides a user-friendly interface suitable for resource managers and decision makers as well as scientists. The software locally downscales historical and future monthly climate data layers into scale-free point estimates of climate values for the entire North American continent. The software also calculates a large number of biologically relevant climate variables that are usually derived from daily weather data. ClimateNA covers 1) 104 years of historical data (1901–2014) in monthly, annual, decadal and 30-year time steps; 2) three paleoclimatic periods (Last Glacial Maximum, Mid Holocene and Last Millennium); 3) three future periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s); and 4) annual time-series of model projections for 2011–2100. Multiple general circulation models (GCMs) were included for both paleo and future periods, and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and 8.5) were chosen for future climate data.

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          Most cited references6

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          Potential effects of climate change on ecosystem and tree species distribution in British Columbia.

          A new ecosystem-based climate envelope modeling approach was applied to assess potential climate change impacts on forest communities and tree species. Four orthogonal canonical discriminant functions were used to describe the realized climate space for British Columbia's ecosystems and to model portions of the realized niche space for tree species under current and predicted future climates. This conceptually simple model is capable of predicting species ranges at high spatial resolutions far beyond the study area, including outlying populations and southern range limits for many species. We analyzed how the realized climate space of current ecosystems changes in extent, elevation, and spatial distribution under climate change scenarios and evaluated the implications for potential tree species habitat. Tree species with their northern range limit in British Columbia gain potential habitat at a pace of at least 100 km per decade, common hardwoods appear to be generally unaffected by climate change, and some of the most important conifer species in British Columbia are expected to lose a large portion of their suitable habitat. The extent of spatial redistribution of realized climate space for ecosystems is considerable, with currently important sub-boreal and montane climate regions rapidly disappearing. Local predictions of changes to tree species frequencies were generated as a basis for systematic surveys of biological response to climate change.
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            Velocity of climate change algorithms for guiding conservation and management.

            The velocity of climate change is an elegant analytical concept that can be used to evaluate the exposure of organisms to climate change. In essence, one divides the rate of climate change by the rate of spatial climate variability to obtain a speed at which species must migrate over the surface of the earth to maintain constant climate conditions. However, to apply the algorithm for conservation and management purposes, additional information is needed to improve realism at local scales. For example, destination information is needed to ensure that vectors describing speed and direction of required migration do not point toward a climatic cul-de-sac by pointing beyond mountain tops. Here, we present an analytical approach that conforms to standard velocity algorithms if climate equivalents are nearby. Otherwise, the algorithm extends the search for climate refugia, which can be expanded to search for multivariate climate matches. With source and destination information available, forward and backward velocities can be calculated allowing useful inferences about conservation of species (present-to-future velocities) and management of species populations (future-to-present velocities).
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              Adaptation and exogenous selection in a Picea glauca × Picea engelmannii hybrid zone: implications for forest management under climate change

              The nature of selection responsible for the maintenance of the economically and ecologically important Picea glauca × Picea engelmannii hybrid zone was investigated. Genomic, phenotypic and climatic data were used to test assumptions of hybrid zone maintenance and to model future scenarios under climate change. Genome-wide estimates of admixture based on a panel of 86 candidate gene single nucleotide polymorphisms were combined with long-term quantitative data on growth and survival (over 20 yr), as well as one-time assessments of bud burst and bud set phenology, and cold hardiness traits. A total of 15 498 individuals were phenotyped for growth and survival. Our results suggest that the P. glauca × P. engelmannii hybrid zone is maintained by local adaptation to growing season length and snowpack (exogenous selection). Hybrids appeared to be fitter than pure species in intermediate environments, which fits expectations of the bounded hybrid superiority model of hybrid zone maintenance. Adaptive introgression from parental species has probably contributed to increased hybrid fitness in intermediate habitats. While P. engelmannii ancestry is higher than P. glauca ancestry in hybrid populations, on average, selective breeding in managed hybrid populations is shifting genomic composition towards P. glauca, potentially pre-adapting managed populations to warmer climates.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: Editor
                Journal
                PLoS One
                PLoS ONE
                plos
                plosone
                PLoS ONE
                Public Library of Science (San Francisco, CA USA )
                1932-6203
                8 June 2016
                2016
                : 11
                : 6
                : e0156720
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Centre for Forest Conservation Genetics, Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, University of British Columbia, 3041–2424 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada
                [2 ]Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, 733 General Services Building, Edmonton, Alberta, T5H 4R1, Canada
                [3 ]Competitiveness and Innovation Branch, Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resources Operations of British Columbia, Victoria, BC, V8W 9C2, Canada
                [4 ]Klamath Center for Conservation Research, 136 SW Washington Avenue, Suite 202, Corvallis, OR, 97333, United States of America
                University of Vigo, SPAIN
                Author notes

                Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

                Conceived and designed the experiments: TW AH DS. Performed the experiments: TW AH DS CC. Analyzed the data: TW AH DS CC. Contributed reagents/materials/analysis tools: TW AH DS CC. Wrote the paper: TW AH DS CC.

                Article
                PONE-D-16-06098
                10.1371/journal.pone.0156720
                4898765
                27275583
                c8a91f70-3e29-49d6-8348-e22150dc86b0
                © 2016 Wang et al

                This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

                History
                : 11 February 2016
                : 18 May 2016
                Page count
                Figures: 6, Tables: 3, Pages: 17
                Funding
                Funded by: Forest Genetic Council of British Columbia, Canada
                Funded by: Competitiveness and Innovation Branch, Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resources Operations of British Columbia, Canada
                Funding was received from the Forest Genetic Council of British Columbia, Canada, and from the Competitiveness and Innovation Branch of the Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resources Operations of British Columbia, Canada. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
                Categories
                Research Article
                Earth Sciences
                Atmospheric Science
                Climatology
                Paleoclimatology
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Paleontology
                Paleoclimatology
                Earth Sciences
                Paleontology
                Paleoclimatology
                Research and Analysis Methods
                Research Facilities
                Weather Stations
                Earth Sciences
                Atmospheric Science
                Climatology
                Climate Change
                Engineering and Technology
                Equipment
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                Biology and Life Sciences
                Ecology
                Paleoecology
                Ecology and Environmental Sciences
                Ecology
                Paleoecology
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Paleontology
                Paleobiology
                Paleoecology
                Earth Sciences
                Paleontology
                Paleobiology
                Paleoecology
                People and places
                Geographical locations
                North America
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Ecology
                Theoretical Ecology
                Ecology and Environmental Sciences
                Ecology
                Theoretical Ecology
                Earth Sciences
                Atmospheric Science
                Meteorology
                Custom metadata
                The data are delivered through the following three options: 1) a software package, ClimateNA ( http://cfcg.forestry.ubc.ca/projects/climate-data/); 2) a Google Map based interface ( http://climatewna.com/climatena_map/); 3) raster surface files ( http://adaptwest.databasin.org/pages/adaptwest-climatena).

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