The burden of dengue in children and risk factors of transmission in nine districts in Sri Lanka

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Abstract

We sought to understand the differences in age‐stratified seroprevalence rates in different regions in Sri Lanka to plan dengue vaccination programs, especially as the WHO has given guidance to vaccinate in high transmission settings. Age stratified seroprevalence rates were assessed in children, aged 10−20 years, in nine districts representing the nine provinces in Sri Lanka, from September 2022 to March 2023. A stratified multistage cluster was used to select 146 schools representing each district. Of the 5207 children recruited, the overall dengue seroprevalence rates in children was 24.8%, with the highest rates reported from Trincomalee (54.3%) and the lowest rates from Badulla (14.2%), which is a high‐altitude estate area. While the age‐stratified seroprevalence rates increased in some districts such as Trincomalee, Jaffna, Gampaha, and Ratnapura, which reported the highest seropositivity rates, there was no such increase with age in the other districts. There was a weak correlation between the dengue antibody positivity rates and age in most districts which had seroprevalence rates of >25%, while there was no increase in antibody titers with age in the other districts. The seroprevalence rates was significantly higher in urban areas (35.8%) compared to rural (23.2%) and estate areas (9.4%), although there was no association with seropositivity rates with population density (Spearman's r = −0.01, p = 0.98), in each district. The seroprevalence rates in many districts were very different to those reported from Colombo, with many districts reporting low transmission rates. These data would be important to consider when rolling out dengue vaccines in Sri Lanka.

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Global expansion and redistribution of Aedes -borne virus transmission risk with climate change

Sadie J. Ryan, Colin Carlson, Erin A. Mordecai … (2019)

Forecasting the impacts of climate change on Aedes-borne viruses—especially dengue, chikungunya, and Zika—is a key component of public health preparedness. We apply an empirically parameterized model of viral transmission by the vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus, as a function of temperature, to predict cumulative monthly global transmission risk in current climates, and compare them with projected risk in 2050 and 2080 based on general circulation models (GCMs). Our results show that if mosquito range shifts track optimal temperature ranges for transmission (21.3–34.0°C for Ae. aegypti; 19.9–29.4°C for Ae. albopictus), we can expect poleward shifts in Aedes-borne virus distributions. However, the differing thermal niches of the two vectors produce different patterns of shifts under climate change. More severe climate change scenarios produce larger population exposures to transmission by Ae. aegypti, but not by Ae. albopictus in the most extreme cases. Climate-driven risk of transmission from both mosquitoes will increase substantially, even in the short term, for most of Europe. In contrast, significant reductions in climate suitability are expected for Ae. albopictus, most noticeably in southeast Asia and west Africa. Within the next century, nearly a billion people are threatened with new exposure to virus transmission by both Aedes spp. in the worst-case scenario. As major net losses in year-round transmission risk are predicted for Ae. albopictus, we project a global shift towards more seasonal risk across regions. Many other complicating factors (like mosquito range limits and viral evolution) exist, but overall our results indicate that while climate change will lead to increased net and new exposures to Aedes-borne viruses, the most extreme increases in Ae. albopictus transmission are predicted to occur at intermediate climate change scenarios.

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Efficacy of Wolbachia-infected mosquito deployments for the control of dengue

Adi Utarini, Citra Indriani, Riris Andono Ahmad … (2021)

Background: Aedes aegypti mosquitoes infected with Wolbachia pipientis ( w Mel strain) have reduced potential to transmit dengue viruses. Methods: We conducted a cluster randomised trial of deployments of w Mel-infected Ae. aegypti for control of dengue in Yogyakarta City, Indonesia. Twenty-four geographic clusters were randomly allocated to receive w Mel deployments as an adjunct to local mosquito control measures; or to continue with local mosquito control measures only. A test-negative design was used to measure efficacy. Study participants were persons 3–45 years old attending primary care clinics with acute undifferentiated fever. Laboratory testing identified virologically-confirmed dengue cases and test-negative controls. The primary endpoint was efficacy of w Mel in reducing the incidence of symptomatic, virologically-confirmed dengue, caused by any dengue virus serotype. Results: Following successful introgression of w Mel in intervention clusters, 8144 participants were enrolled; 3721 from w Mel-treated clusters and 4423 from untreated clusters. In the ITT analysis virologically-confirmed dengue occurred in 67 of 2905 (2.3%) participants in the w Mel-treated and 318 of 3401 (9.4%) in the untreated arm (OR 0.23, 95% CI, 0.15 to 0.35; P=0.004): protective efficacy of 77.1% (95% CI, 65.3 to 84.9). Protective efficacy was similar for the four serotypes. Hospitalisation for virologically-confirmed dengue was less frequent for participants resident in the w Mel-treated (13/2905, 2.8%) compared to the untreated arm (102/3401, 6.3%): protective efficacy 86.2% (95% CI, 66.2 to 94.3) Conclusions: w Mel introgression into Ae. aegypti populations was efficacious in reducing the incidence of symptomatic dengue, and also led to fewer dengue hospitalisations. Trial registration number: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03055585 and INA-A7OB6TW

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Clinical efficacy and safety of a novel tetravalent dengue vaccine in healthy children in Asia: a phase 3, randomised, observer-masked, placebo-controlled trial.

Maria Capeding, Ngoc Huu Tran, Sri Hadinegoro … (2014)

An estimated 100 million people have symptomatic dengue infection every year. This is the first report of a phase 3 vaccine efficacy trial of a candidate dengue vaccine. We aimed to assess the efficacy of the CYD dengue vaccine against symptomatic, virologically confirmed dengue in children. We did an observer-masked, randomised controlled, multicentre, phase 3 trial in five countries in the Asia-Pacific region. Between June 3, and Dec 1, 2011, healthy children aged 2-14 years were randomly assigned (2:1), by computer-generated permuted blocks of six with an interactive voice or web response system, to receive three injections of a recombinant, live, attenuated, tetravalent dengue vaccine (CYD-TDV), or placebo, at months 0, 6, and 12. Randomisation was stratified by age and site. Participants were followed up until month 25. Trial staff responsible for the preparation and administration of injections were unmasked to group allocation, but were not included in the follow-up of the participants; allocation was concealed from the study sponsor, investigators, and parents and guardians. Our primary objective was to assess protective efficacy against symptomatic, virologically confirmed dengue, irrespective of disease severity or serotype, that took place more than 28 days after the third injection. The primary endpoint was for the lower bound of the 95% CI of vaccine efficacy to be greater than 25%. Analysis was by intention to treat and per procotol. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01373281. We randomly assigned 10,275 children to receive either vaccine (n=6851) or placebo (n=3424), of whom 6710 (98%) and 3350 (98%), respectively, were included in the primary analysis. 250 cases of virologically confirmed dengue took place more than 28 days after the third injection (117 [47%] in the vaccine group and 133 [53%] in the control group). The primary endpoint was achieved with 56·5% (95% CI 43·8-66·4) efficacy. We recorded 647 serious adverse events (402 [62%] in the vaccine group and 245 [38%] in the control group). 54 (1%) children in the vaccine group and 33 (1%) of those in the control group had serious adverse events that happened within 28 days of vaccination. Serious adverse events were consistent with medical disorders in this age group and were mainly infections and injuries. Our findings show that dengue vaccine is efficacious when given as three injections at months 0, 6, and 12 to children aged 2-14 years in endemic areas in Asia, and has a good safety profile. Vaccination could reduce the incidence of symptomatic infection and hospital admission and has the potential to provide an important public health benefit. Sanofi Pasteur. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.