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      Current and Emerging Developments in Subseasonal to Decadal Prediction

      1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 12 , 13 , 14 , 15 , 16 , 17 , 18 , 15 , 11 , 19 , 20 , 3 , 21 , 22 , 11 , 23 , 24 , 25 , 26 , 27 , 20 , 28 , 29 , 30 , 31 , 32 , 33 , 34 , 35 , 4 , 26 , 36 , 37 , 38 , 39 , 40 , 41 , 42 , 43 , 44 , 45 , 46 , 47 , 48 , 49 , 50 , 25 , 12 , 51 , 42 , 52 , 16 , 53 , 54
      Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
      American Meteorological Society
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          There is no author summary for this article yet. Authors can add summaries to their articles on ScienceOpen to make them more accessible to a non-specialist audience.

          Abstract

          Weather and climate variations on subseasonal to decadal time scales can have enormous social, economic, and environmental impacts, making skillful predictions on these time scales a valuable tool for decision-makers. As such, there is a growing interest in the scientific, operational, and applications communities in developing forecasts to improve our foreknowledge of extreme events. On subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales, these include high-impact meteorological events such as tropical cyclones, extratropical storms, floods, droughts, and heat and cold waves. On seasonal to decadal (S2D) time scales, while the focus broadly remains similar (e.g., on precipitation, surface and upper-ocean temperatures, and their effects on the probabilities of high-impact meteorological events), understanding the roles of internal variability and externally forced variability such as anthropogenic warming in forecasts also becomes important. The S2S and S2D communities share common scientific and technical challenges. These include forecast initialization and ensemble generation; initialization shock and drift; understanding the onset of model systematic errors; bias correction, calibration, and forecast quality assessment; model resolution; atmosphere–ocean coupling; sources and expectations for predictability; and linking research, operational forecasting, and end-user needs. In September 2018 a coordinated pair of international conferences, framed by the above challenges, was organized jointly by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP). These conferences surveyed the state of S2S and S2D prediction, ongoing research, and future needs, providing an ideal basis for synthesizing current and emerging developments in these areas that promise to enhance future operational services. This article provides such a synthesis.

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          Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability.

          Systematic climate shifts have been linked to multidecadal variability in observed sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean. These links are extensive, influencing a range of climate processes such as hurricane activity and African Sahel and Amazonian droughts. The variability is distinct from historical global-mean temperature changes and is commonly attributed to natural ocean oscillations. A number of studies have provided evidence that aerosols can influence long-term changes in sea surface temperatures, but climate models have so far failed to reproduce these interactions and the role of aerosols in decadal variability remains unclear. Here we use a state-of-the-art Earth system climate model to show that aerosol emissions and periods of volcanic activity explain 76 per cent of the simulated multidecadal variance in detrended 1860-2005 North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. After 1950, simulated variability is within observational estimates; our estimates for 1910-1940 capture twice the warming of previous generation models but do not explain the entire observed trend. Other processes, such as ocean circulation, may also have contributed to variability in the early twentieth century. Mechanistically, we find that inclusion of aerosol-cloud microphysical effects, which were included in few previous multimodel ensembles, dominates the magnitude (80 per cent) and the spatial pattern of the total surface aerosol forcing in the North Atlantic. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic aerosol emissions influenced a range of societally important historical climate events such as peaks in hurricane activity and Sahel drought. Decadal-scale model predictions of regional Atlantic climate will probably be improved by incorporating aerosol-cloud microphysical interactions and estimates of future concentrations of aerosols, emissions of which are directly addressable by policy actions.
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            The quiet revolution of numerical weather prediction.

            Advances in numerical weather prediction represent a quiet revolution because they have resulted from a steady accumulation of scientific knowledge and technological advances over many years that, with only a few exceptions, have not been associated with the aura of fundamental physics breakthroughs. Nonetheless, the impact of numerical weather prediction is among the greatest of any area of physical science. As a computational problem, global weather prediction is comparable to the simulation of the human brain and of the evolution of the early Universe, and it is performed every day at major operational centres across the world.
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              The SMOS Mission: New Tool for Monitoring Key Elements ofthe Global Water Cycle

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
                American Meteorological Society
                0003-0007
                1520-0477
                June 01 2020
                June 26 2020
                June 01 2020
                June 26 2020
                : 101
                : 6
                : E869-E896
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
                [2 ]Institute of Oceanography, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
                [3 ]CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
                [4 ]Rosenstiel School for Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Miami, Miami, Florida
                [5 ]Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, and Chemical Sciences Division, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, Colorado
                [6 ]CPTEC/INPE Center for Weather Forecasts and Climate Studies, Cachoeira Paulista, Brazil
                [7 ]Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, NCAR, Boulder, Colorado
                [8 ]Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies, George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia
                [9 ]Barcelona Supercomputing Center, and ICREA, Barcelona, Spain
                [10 ]Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland
                [11 ]ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom
                [12 ]Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
                [13 ]Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, Maryland
                [14 ]Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, and Deutscher Wetterdienst, Hamburg, Germany
                [15 ]World Climate Research Programme, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
                [16 ]International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, New York
                [17 ]Met Office Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom
                [18 ]Department of Atmosphere, Ocean and Earth System Modeling Research, Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, Japan
                [19 ]Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, United Kingdom
                [20 ]Institut Franco-Argentin d’Estudes sur le Climat et ses Impacts, Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina
                [21 ]Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Daytona Beach, Florida
                [22 ]Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center/Innovim, LLC, College Park, Maryland
                [23 ]Global Change, Climate and Air Quality Modelling, CSIR, and Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa
                [24 ]I.M. Systems Group, NOAA/NWS/National Centers for Environmental Prediction, College Park, Maryland
                [25 ]Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain
                [26 ]National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
                [27 ]Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California
                [28 ]Earth System Physics Section, International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy, and Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
                [29 ]Institute for Atmospheric Physics, Johannes Gutenberg University, Mainz, Germany
                [30 ]Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
                [31 ]Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, and NOAA/OAR/ESRL/Global Systems Division, Boulder, Colorado
                [32 ]Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California
                [33 ]Cherokee Nation Strategic Programs, and NOAA/Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research/Office of Weather and Air Quality, Silver Spring, Maryland
                [34 ]Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany
                [35 ]Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Kanagawa, Japan
                [36 ]Research Center for Climate Sciences, Pusan National University, and Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science, Busan, Korea
                [37 ]Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado
                [38 ]School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
                [39 ]Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom
                [40 ]University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, Urbana, Illinois
                [41 ]Institute for Oceanography, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Universität Hamburg, and International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
                [42 ]Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey
                [43 ]Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Graz, Austria
                [44 ]Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, and Max Planck Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany
                [45 ]School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
                [46 ]George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia
                [47 ]Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, and Physical Sciences Division, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, Colorado
                [48 ]Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, and Facultad de Ingeniería Marítima y Ciencias del Mar, Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral, Guayaquil, Ecuador
                [49 ]GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Kiel, Germany
                [50 ]Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada
                [51 ]Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia
                [52 ]Oceans and Atmosphere, CSIRO, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
                [53 ]National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
                [54 ]National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
                Article
                10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0037.1
                b32328ad-6a63-44eb-8855-7c84ac278105
                © 2020
                History

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