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      A Deep Learning Approach for Predicting Antidepressant Response in Major Depression Using Clinical and Genetic Biomarkers

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          Abstract

          In the wake of recent advances in scientific research, personalized medicine using deep learning techniques represents a new paradigm. In this work, our goal was to establish deep learning models which distinguish responders from non-responders, and also to predict possible antidepressant treatment outcomes in major depressive disorder (MDD). To uncover relationships between the responsiveness of antidepressant treatment and biomarkers, we developed a deep learning prediction approach resulting from the analysis of genetic and clinical factors such as single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), age, sex, baseline Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression score, depressive episodes, marital status, and suicide attempt status of MDD patients. The cohort consisted of 455 patients who were treated with selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (treatment-response rate = 61.0%; remission rate = 33.0%). By using the SNP dataset that was original to a genome-wide association study, we selected 10 SNPs (including ABCA13 rs4917029, BNIP3 rs9419139, CACNA1E rs704329, EXOC4 rs6978272, GRIN2B rs7954376, LHFPL3 rs4352778, NELL1 rs2139423, NUAK1 rs2956406, PREX1 rs4810894, and SLIT3 rs139863958) which were associated with antidepressant treatment response. Furthermore, we pinpointed 10 SNPs (including ARNTL rs11022778, CAMK1D rs2724812, GABRB3 rs12904459, GRM8 rs35864549, NAALADL2 rs9878985, NCALD rs483986, PLA2G4A rs12046378, PROK2 rs73103153, RBFOX1 rs17134927, and ZNF536 rs77554113) in relation to remission. Then, we employed multilayer feedforward neural networks (MFNNs) containing 1–3 hidden layers and compared MFNN models with logistic regression models. Our analysis results revealed that the MFNN model with 2 hidden layers (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.8228 ± 0.0571; sensitivity = 0.7546 ± 0.0619; specificity = 0.6922 ± 0.0765) performed maximally among predictive models to infer the complex relationship between antidepressant treatment response and biomarkers. In addition, the MFNN model with 3 hidden layers (AUC = 0.8060 ± 0.0722; sensitivity = 0.7732 ± 0.0583; specificity = 0.6623 ± 0.0853) achieved best among predictive models to predict remission. Our study indicates that the deep MFNN framework may provide a suitable method to establish a tool for distinguishing treatment responders from non-responders prior to antidepressant therapy.

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          Most cited references48

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          The path to personalized medicine.

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            Measuring diagnostic and predictive accuracy in disease management: an introduction to receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis.

            Diagnostic or predictive accuracy concerns are common in all phases of a disease management (DM) programme, and ultimately play an influential role in the assessment of programme effectiveness. Areas, such as the identification of diseased patients, predictive modelling of future health status and costs and risk stratification, are just a few of the domains in which assessment of accuracy is beneficial, if not critical. The most commonly used analytical model for this purpose is the standard 2 x 2 table method in which sensitivity and specificity are calculated. However, there are several limitations to this approach, including the reliance on a single defined criterion or cut-off for determining a true-positive result, use of non-standardized measurement instruments and sensitivity to outcome prevalence. This paper introduces the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analysis as a more appropriate and useful technique for assessing diagnostic and predictive accuracy in DM. Its advantages include; testing accuracy across the entire range of scores and thereby not requiring a predetermined cut-off point, easily examined visual and statistical comparisons across tests or scores, and independence from outcome prevalence. Therefore the implementation of ROC as an evaluation tool should be strongly considered in the various phases of a DM programme.
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              Predicting healthcare trajectories from medical records: A deep learning approach.

              Personalized predictive medicine necessitates the modeling of patient illness and care processes, which inherently have long-term temporal dependencies. Healthcare observations, stored in electronic medical records are episodic and irregular in time. We introduce DeepCare, an end-to-end deep dynamic neural network that reads medical records, stores previous illness history, infers current illness states and predicts future medical outcomes. At the data level, DeepCare represents care episodes as vectors and models patient health state trajectories by the memory of historical records. Built on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), DeepCare introduces methods to handle irregularly timed events by moderating the forgetting and consolidation of memory. DeepCare also explicitly models medical interventions that change the course of illness and shape future medical risk. Moving up to the health state level, historical and present health states are then aggregated through multiscale temporal pooling, before passing through a neural network that estimates future outcomes. We demonstrate the efficacy of DeepCare for disease progression modeling, intervention recommendation, and future risk prediction. On two important cohorts with heavy social and economic burden - diabetes and mental health - the results show improved prediction accuracy.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Journal
                Front Psychiatry
                Front Psychiatry
                Front. Psychiatry
                Frontiers in Psychiatry
                Frontiers Media S.A.
                1664-0640
                06 July 2018
                2018
                : 9
                : 290
                Affiliations
                [1] 1Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Washington , Seattle, WA, United States
                [2] 2Graduate Institute of Biomedical Sciences, China Medical University , Taichung, Taiwan
                [3] 3Department of Public Health, Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, National Taiwan University , Taipei, Taiwan
                [4] 4Center for Neuropsychiatric Research, National Health Research Institutes , Miaoli County, Taiwan
                [5] 5Yu's Psychiatric Clinic , Kaohsiung, Taiwan
                [6] 6Department of Psychiatry, Taipei Veterans General Hospital , Taipei, Taiwan
                [7] 7Division of Psychiatry, National Yang-Ming University , Taipei, Taiwan
                [8] 8Division of Interdisciplinary Medicine and Biotechnology, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center/Harvard Medical School , Boston, MA, United States
                [9] 9Institute of Brain Science, National Yang-Ming University , Taipei, Taiwan
                Author notes

                Edited by: Chad A. Bousman, University of Calgary, Canada

                Reviewed by: Eva E. Redei, Northwestern University, United States; Jin Li, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China; Yun-Ai Su, Peking University Institute of Mental Health, China

                *Correspondence: Eugene Lin lines@ 123456uw.edu

                This article was submitted to Molecular Psychiatry, a section of the journal Frontiers in Psychiatry

                Article
                10.3389/fpsyt.2018.00290
                6043864
                30034349
                b092559c-29a9-4aae-bd71-b6f1c9f9de03
                Copyright © 2018 Lin, Kuo, Liu, Yu, Yang and Tsai.

                This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

                History
                : 26 February 2018
                : 12 June 2018
                Page count
                Figures: 1, Tables: 6, Equations: 0, References: 57, Pages: 10, Words: 8040
                Categories
                Psychiatry
                Original Research

                Clinical Psychology & Psychiatry
                antidepressant,deep learning,genome-wide association studies,major depressive disorder,multilayer feedforward neural networks,personalized medicine,single nucleotide polymorphisms

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