Potential changes in cooling degree day under different global warming levels and shared socioeconomic pathways in West Africa

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Abstract

Increasing levels of climatic warming are expected to affect the global development of energy consumption. The cooling degree day (CDD) is one of the climate-driven indices that captures the impact of climate on energy demand. However, little is known about the spatiotemporal trends of CDD in relation to a changing climate and economy in West Africa and its main implications. Hence, in order to analyze how energy demand could evolve, this study aims to assess the changes in CDD under 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, and 3.0 °C global warming levels (GWLs), with and without population exposure and trends under the two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for West Africa. A climate-reflective base temperature (T-base) is used and was determined using a piecewise linear regression method. Seasonal electricity consumption was derived using a decomposition feature. An ensemble of seven Global Climate Models (GCMs) were used for the future temperature projections. The future population was based on shared socioeconomic pathway outputs. Based on the analysis, the reported average T-base for the West African region is 24 °C. An increasing CDD trend was identified in all of the RCP scenarios, but is more pronounced in RCP8.5. RCP8.5 departs from the mean historical period of approximately 20% by 2100 with the standardized value. The same trend is observed under different GWLs as the warming level increased and was most striking in the Sahelian zone. Population exposure to CDD (labelled CDDP) increases with warming levels, but is more pronounced in highly agglomerated areas. The CDDP index best captures the spatial representation of areas with high cooling demand potential with respect to the demographic distribution. This study can serve to inform better energy demand assessment scenarios and supply planning against the backdrop of changing climate conditions in West Africa.

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The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

Gerald Meehl, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Elmar Kriegler … (2016)

Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit emissions and land use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with the climate model simulations run within the 2017–2018 time frame, and output from the climate model projections made available and analyses performed over the 2018–2020 period.