Synthetic analyses of phenotypic selection in natural populations: lessons, limitations and future directions

How strong is phenotypic selection on quantitative traits in the wild? We reviewed the literature from 1984 through 1997 for studies that estimated the strength of linear and quadratic selection in terms of standardized selection gradients or differentials on natural variation in quantitative traits for field populations. We tabulated 63 published studies of 62 species that reported over 2,500 estimates of linear or quadratic selection. More than 80% of the estimates were for morphological traits; there is very little data for behavioral or physiological traits. Most published selection studies were unreplicated and had sample sizes below 135 individuals, resulting in low statistical power to detect selection of the magnitude typically reported for natural populations. The absolute values of linear selection gradients |beta| were exponentially distributed with an overall median of 0.16, suggesting that strong directional selection was uncommon. The values of |beta| for selection on morphological and on life-history/phenological traits were significantly different: on average, selection on morphology was stronger than selection on phenology/life history. Similarly, the values of |beta| for selection via aspects of survival, fecundity, and mating success were significantly different: on average, selection on mating success was stronger than on survival. Comparisons of estimated linear selection gradients and differentials suggest that indirect components of phenotypic selection were usually modest relative to direct components. The absolute values of quadratic selection gradients |gamma| were exponentially distributed with an overall median of only 0.10, suggesting that quadratic selection is typically quite weak. The distribution of gamma values was symmetric about 0, providing no evidence that stabilizing selection is stronger or more common than disruptive selection in nature. Show more

The long history of reciprocal transplant studies testing the hypothesis of local adaptation has shown that populations are often adapted to their local environments. Yet many studies have not demonstrated local adaptation, suggesting that sometimes native populations are no better adapted than are genotypes from foreign environments. Local adaptation may also lead to trade-offs, in which adaptation to one environment comes at a cost of adaptation to another environment. I conducted a survey of published studies of local adaptation to quantify its frequency and magnitude and the costs associated with local adaptation. I also quantified the relationship between local adaptation and environmental differences and the relationship between local adaptation and phenotypic divergence. The overall frequency of local adaptation was 0.71, and the magnitude of the native population advantage in relative fitness was 45%. Divergence between home site environments was positively associated with the magnitude of local adaptation, but phenotypic divergence was not. I found a small negative correlation between a population's relative fitness in its native environment and its fitness in a foreign environment, indicating weak trade-offs associated with local adaptation. These results suggest that populations are often locally adapted but stochastic processes such as genetic drift may limit the efficacy of divergent selection. Show more