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      Disease trajectories and mortality among individuals diagnosed with depression: a community-based cohort study in UK Biobank

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          Abstract

          Patients with depression are at increased risk for a range of comorbid diseases, with, however, unclear explanations. In this large community-based cohort study of the UK Biobank, 24,130 patients diagnosed with depression were compared to 120,366 matched individuals without such a diagnosis. Follow-up was conducted from 6 months after the index date until death or the end of 2019, for the occurrence of 470 medical conditions and 16 specific causes of death. The median age at the time of the depression diagnosis was 62.0 years, and most of the patients were female (63.63%). During a median follow-up of 4.94 years, 129 medical conditions were found to be significantly associated with a prior diagnosis of depression, based on adjusted Cox regression models. Using disease trajectory network analysis to visualize the magnitude of disease–disease associations and the temporal order of the associated medical conditions, we identified three main affected disease clusters after depression (i.e., cardiometabolic diseases, chronic inflammatory diseases, and diseases related to tobacco abuse), which were further linked to a wider range of other conditions. In addition, we also identified three depression-mortality trajectories leading to death due to cardiovascular disease, respiratory system disease and malignant neoplasm. In conclusion, an inpatient diagnosis of depression in later life is associated with three distinct network-based clusters of medical conditions, indicating alterations in the cardiometabolic system, chronic status of inflammation, and tobacco abuse as key pathways to a wide range of other conditions downstream. If replicated, these pathways may constitute promising targets for the health promotion among depression patients.

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          Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

          Summary Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. Findings Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1–4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0–8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421–723) to 853 million (642–1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6–9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4–7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782–3252] per 100 000 in males vs s1400 [1279–1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082–3583] vs 2336 [2154–2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943–3630] vs 5643 [5057–6302]). Interpretation Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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            UK Biobank: An Open Access Resource for Identifying the Causes of a Wide Range of Complex Diseases of Middle and Old Age

            Cathie Sudlow and colleagues describe the UK Biobank, a large population-based prospective study, established to allow investigation of the genetic and non-genetic determinants of the diseases of middle and old age.
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              Coding algorithms for defining comorbidities in ICD-9-CM and ICD-10 administrative data.

              Implementation of the International Statistical Classification of Disease and Related Health Problems, 10th Revision (ICD-10) coding system presents challenges for using administrative data. Recognizing this, we conducted a multistep process to develop ICD-10 coding algorithms to define Charlson and Elixhauser comorbidities in administrative data and assess the performance of the resulting algorithms. ICD-10 coding algorithms were developed by "translation" of the ICD-9-CM codes constituting Deyo's (for Charlson comorbidities) and Elixhauser's coding algorithms and by physicians' assessment of the face-validity of selected ICD-10 codes. The process of carefully developing ICD-10 algorithms also produced modified and enhanced ICD-9-CM coding algorithms for the Charlson and Elixhauser comorbidities. We then used data on in-patients aged 18 years and older in ICD-9-CM and ICD-10 administrative hospital discharge data from a Canadian health region to assess the comorbidity frequencies and mortality prediction achieved by the original ICD-9-CM algorithms, the enhanced ICD-9-CM algorithms, and the new ICD-10 coding algorithms. Among 56,585 patients in the ICD-9-CM data and 58,805 patients in the ICD-10 data, frequencies of the 17 Charlson comorbidities and the 30 Elixhauser comorbidities remained generally similar across algorithms. The new ICD-10 and enhanced ICD-9-CM coding algorithms either matched or outperformed the original Deyo and Elixhauser ICD-9-CM coding algorithms in predicting in-hospital mortality. The C-statistic was 0.842 for Deyo's ICD-9-CM coding algorithm, 0.860 for the ICD-10 coding algorithm, and 0.859 for the enhanced ICD-9-CM coding algorithm, 0.868 for the original Elixhauser ICD-9-CM coding algorithm, 0.870 for the ICD-10 coding algorithm and 0.878 for the enhanced ICD-9-CM coding algorithm. These newly developed ICD-10 and ICD-9-CM comorbidity coding algorithms produce similar estimates of comorbidity prevalence in administrative data, and may outperform existing ICD-9-CM coding algorithms.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                haomin.yang@ki.se
                songhuan@wchscu.cn
                Journal
                Mol Psychiatry
                Mol Psychiatry
                Molecular Psychiatry
                Nature Publishing Group UK (London )
                1359-4184
                1476-5578
                25 May 2021
                : 1-11
                Affiliations
                [1 ]GRID grid.13291.38, ISNI 0000 0001 0807 1581, West China Biomedical Big Data Center, West China Hospital, , Sichuan University, ; Chengdu, China
                [2 ]GRID grid.13291.38, ISNI 0000 0001 0807 1581, Medical Big Data Center, , Sichuan University, ; Chengdu, China
                [3 ]GRID grid.13291.38, ISNI 0000 0001 0807 1581, Division of Nephrology, Kidney Research Institute, State Key Laboratory of Biotherapy and Cancer Center, West China Hospital, , Sichuan University, ; Chengdu, China
                [4 ]GRID grid.13291.38, ISNI 0000 0001 0807 1581, Department of Anesthesiology, West China Hospital, , Sichuan University, ; Chengdu, China
                [5 ]GRID grid.14013.37, ISNI 0000 0004 0640 0021, Center of Public Health Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, , University of Iceland, ; Reykjavík, Iceland
                [6 ]GRID grid.4714.6, ISNI 0000 0004 1937 0626, Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, , Karolinska Institutet, ; Stockholm, Sweden
                [7 ]GRID grid.38142.3c, ISNI 000000041936754X, Department of Epidemiology, , Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, ; Boston, MA USA
                [8 ]GRID grid.412901.f, ISNI 0000 0004 1770 1022, Mental Health Center, , West China Hospital of Sichuan University, ; Chengdu, China
                [9 ]GRID grid.256112.3, ISNI 0000 0004 1797 9307, Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, , Fujian Medical University, ; Fuzhou, China
                [10 ]GRID grid.4714.6, ISNI 0000 0004 1937 0626, Institute of Environmental Medicine, Karolinska Institute, ; Stockholm, Sweden
                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2009-8503
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3113-9577
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2252-2606
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3845-8079
                Article
                1170
                10.1038/s41380-021-01170-6
                8145187
                34035478
                a9f38ce5-c049-4dc5-8f40-f4d2f265b0a4
                © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited 2021

                This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.

                History
                : 11 January 2021
                : 30 April 2021
                : 11 May 2021
                Funding
                Funded by: FundRef https://doi.org/10.13039/501100001809, National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China);
                Award ID: No. 81971262
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: West China Hospital COVID-19 Epidemic Science and Technology Project (No. HX-2019-nCoV-014 to HS), Sichuan University Emergency Grant (No. 2020scunCoVyingji10002 to HS)
                Funded by: Key Research and Development Program of Science and Technology Department of Sichuan Province (NO. 2019YFS0536 to LY).
                Funded by: Startup Fund for high-level talents of Fujian Medical University (XRCZX2020007 to HY)
                Funded by: EU Horizon2020 Research and Innovation Action Grant: 847776
                Categories
                Article

                Molecular medicine
                depression,psychology
                Molecular medicine
                depression, psychology

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