What can work and how? An overview of evidence-based interventions and delivery strategies to support health and human development from before conception to 20 years

Summary Background While the COVID-19 pandemic will increase mortality due to the virus, it is also likely to increase mortality indirectly. In this study, we estimate the additional maternal and under-5 child deaths resulting from the potential disruption of health systems and decreased access to food. Methods We modelled three scenarios in which the coverage of essential maternal and child health interventions is reduced by 9·8–51·9% and the prevalence of wasting is increased by 10–50%. Although our scenarios are hypothetical, we sought to reflect real-world possibilities, given emerging reports of the supply-side and demand-side effects of the pandemic. We used the Lives Saved Tool to estimate the additional maternal and under-5 child deaths under each scenario, in 118 low-income and middle-income countries. We estimated additional deaths for a single month and extrapolated for 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months. Findings Our least severe scenario (coverage reductions of 9·8–18·5% and wasting increase of 10%) over 6 months would result in 253 500 additional child deaths and 12 200 additional maternal deaths. Our most severe scenario (coverage reductions of 39·3–51·9% and wasting increase of 50%) over 6 months would result in 1 157 000 additional child deaths and 56 700 additional maternal deaths. These additional deaths would represent an increase of 9·8–44·7% in under-5 child deaths per month, and an 8·3–38·6% increase in maternal deaths per month, across the 118 countries. Across our three scenarios, the reduced coverage of four childbirth interventions (parenteral administration of uterotonics, antibiotics, and anticonvulsants, and clean birth environments) would account for approximately 60% of additional maternal deaths. The increase in wasting prevalence would account for 18–23% of additional child deaths and reduced coverage of antibiotics for pneumonia and neonatal sepsis and of oral rehydration solution for diarrhoea would together account for around 41% of additional child deaths. Interpretation Our estimates are based on tentative assumptions and represent a wide range of outcomes. Nonetheless, they show that, if routine health care is disrupted and access to food is decreased (as a result of unavoidable shocks, health system collapse, or intentional choices made in responding to the pandemic), the increase in child and maternal deaths will be devastating. We hope these numbers add context as policy makers establish guidelines and allocate resources in the days and months to come. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Global Affairs Canada.

Newborn animal studies and pilot studies in humans suggest that mild hypothermia following peripartum hypoxia-ischaemia in newborn infants may reduce neurological sequelae without adverse effects. To determine the effect of therapeutic hypothermia in encephalopathic asphyxiated newborn infants on mortality, long-term neurodevelopmental disability and clinically important side effects. We used the standard search strategy of the Cochrane Neonatal Review Group as outlined in The Cochrane Library (Issue 2, 2007). Randomised controlled trials evaluating therapeutic hypothermia in term and late preterm newborns with hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy were identified by searching the Oxford Database of Perinatal Trials, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL, The Cochrane Library, 2007, Issue 2), MEDLINE (1966 to June 2007), previous reviews including cross-references, abstracts, conferences, symposia proceedings, expert informants and journal handsearching. We updated this search in May 2012. We included randomised controlled trials comparing the use of therapeutic hypothermia with standard care in encephalopathic term or late preterm infants with evidence of peripartum asphyxia and without recognisable major congenital anomalies. The primary outcome measure was death or long-term major neurodevelopmental disability. Other outcomes included adverse effects of cooling and 'early' indicators of neurodevelopmental outcome. Four review authors independently selected, assessed the quality of and extracted data from the included studies. Study authors were contacted for further information. Meta-analyses were performed using risk ratios (RR) and risk differences (RD) for dichotomous data, and weighted mean difference for continuous data with 95% confidence intervals (CI). We included 11 randomised controlled trials in this updated review, comprising 1505 term and late preterm infants with moderate/severe encephalopathy and evidence of intrapartum asphyxia. Therapeutic hypothermia resulted in a statistically significant and clinically important reduction in the combined outcome of mortality or major neurodevelopmental disability to 18 months of age (typical RR 0.75 (95% CI 0.68 to 0.83); typical RD -0.15, 95% CI -0.20 to -0.10); number needed to treat for an additional beneficial outcome (NNTB) 7 (95% CI 5 to 10) (8 studies, 1344 infants). Cooling also resulted in statistically significant reductions in mortality (typical RR 0.75 (95% CI 0.64 to 0.88), typical RD -0.09 (95% CI -0.13 to -0.04); NNTB 11 (95% CI 8 to 25) (11 studies, 1468 infants) and in neurodevelopmental disability in survivors (typical RR 0.77 (95% CI 0.63 to 0.94), typical RD -0.13 (95% CI -0.19 to -0.07); NNTB 8 (95% CI 5 to 14) (8 studies, 917 infants). Some adverse effects of hypothermia included an increase sinus bradycardia and a significant increase in thrombocytopenia. There is evidence from the 11 randomised controlled trials included in this systematic review (N = 1505 infants) that therapeutic hypothermia is beneficial in term and late preterm newborns with hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy. Cooling reduces mortality without increasing major disability in survivors. The benefits of cooling on survival and neurodevelopment outweigh the short-term adverse effects. Hypothermia should be instituted in term and late preterm infants with moderate-to-severe hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy if identified before six hours of age. Further trials to determine the appropriate techniques of cooling, including refinement of patient selection, duration of cooling and method of providing therapeutic hypothermia, will refine our understanding of this intervention.

Many countries are developing suicide prevention strategies for which up-to-date, high-quality evidence is required. We present updated evidence for the effectiveness of suicide prevention interventions since 2005.