Dynamic nomogram for predicting acute kidney injury in patients with acute ischemic stroke: A retrospective study

Summary Background Neurological disorders are increasingly recognised as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders. Methods We estimated prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]) by age and sex for 15 neurological disorder categories (tetanus, meningitis, encephalitis, stroke, brain and other CNS cancers, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron diseases, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine, tension-type headache, and a residual category for other less common neurological disorders) in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was the main method of estimation of prevalence and incidence, and the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) was used for mortality estimation. We quantified the contribution of 84 risks and combinations of risk to the disease estimates for the 15 neurological disorder categories using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach. Findings Globally, in 2016, neurological disorders were the leading cause of DALYs (276 million [95% UI 247–308]) and second leading cause of deaths (9·0 million [8·8–9·4]). The absolute number of deaths and DALYs from all neurological disorders combined increased (deaths by 39% [34–44] and DALYs by 15% [9–21]) whereas their age-standardised rates decreased (deaths by 28% [26–30] and DALYs by 27% [24–31]) between 1990 and 2016. The only neurological disorders that had a decrease in rates and absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs were tetanus, meningitis, and encephalitis. The four largest contributors of neurological DALYs were stroke (42·2% [38·6–46·1]), migraine (16·3% [11·7–20·8]), Alzheimer's and other dementias (10·4% [9·0–12·1]), and meningitis (7·9% [6·6–10·4]). For the combined neurological disorders, age-standardised DALY rates were significantly higher in males than in females (male-to-female ratio 1·12 [1·05–1·20]), but migraine, multiple sclerosis, and tension-type headache were more common and caused more burden in females, with male-to-female ratios of less than 0·7. The 84 risks quantified in GBD explain less than 10% of neurological disorder DALY burdens, except stroke, for which 88·8% (86·5–90·9) of DALYs are attributable to risk factors, and to a lesser extent Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (22·3% [11·8–35·1] of DALYs are risk attributable) and idiopathic epilepsy (14·1% [10·8–17·5] of DALYs are risk attributable). Interpretation Globally, the burden of neurological disorders, as measured by the absolute number of DALYs, continues to increase. As populations are growing and ageing, and the prevalence of major disabling neurological disorders steeply increases with age, governments will face increasing demand for treatment, rehabilitation, and support services for neurological disorders. The scarcity of established modifiable risks for most of the neurological burden demonstrates that new knowledge is required to develop effective prevention and treatment strategies. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

MIMIC-III (‘Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care’) is a large, single-center database comprising information relating to patients admitted to critical care units at a large tertiary care hospital. Data includes vital signs, medications, laboratory measurements, observations and notes charted by care providers, fluid balance, procedure codes, diagnostic codes, imaging reports, hospital length of stay, survival data, and more. The database supports applications including academic and industrial research, quality improvement initiatives, and higher education coursework.

The burden of AKI around the globe has not been systematically examined. A systematic review (2004-2012) of large cohort studies was conducted to estimate the world incidence of AKI and its stages of severity and associated mortality, and to describe geographic variations according to countries, regions, and their economies. AKI definitions were reclassified according to the Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) staging system. Random-effects model meta-analyses and meta-regressions were used to generate summary estimates and explore sources of heterogeneity. There were 312 studies identified (n=49,147,878) , primarily in hospital settings. Most studies originated from North America, Northern Europe, and Eastern Asia, from high-income countries, and from nations that spent ≥5% of the gross domestic product on total health expenditure. Among the 154 studies (n=3,585,911) that adopted a KDIGO-equivalent AKI definition, the pooled incidence rates of AKI were 21.6% in adults (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 19.3 to 24.1) and 33.7% in children (95% CI, 26.9 to 41.3). The pooled AKI-associated mortality rates were 23.9% in adults (95% CI, 22.1 to 25.7) and 13.8% in children (95% CI, 8.8 to 21.0). The AKI-associated mortality rate declined over time, and was inversely related to income of countries and percentage of gross domestic product spent on total health expenditure. Using the KDIGO definition, 1 in 5 adults and 1 in 3 children worldwide experience AKI during a hospital episode of care. This analysis provides a platform to raise awareness of AKI with the public, government officials, and health care professionals.