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      NCD Countdown 2030: pathways to achieving Sustainable Development Goal target 3.4

      review-article
      NCD Countdown 2030 collaborators
      Lancet (London, England)
      Elsevier Ltd.

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          Abstract

          The Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 3.4 is to reduce premature mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) by a third by 2030 relative to 2015 levels, and to promote mental health and wellbeing. We used data on cause-specific mortality to characterise the risk and trends in NCD mortality in each country and evaluate combinations of reductions in NCD causes of death that can achieve SDG target 3.4. Among NCDs, ischaemic heart disease is responsible for the highest risk of premature death in more than half of all countries for women, and more than three-quarters for men. However, stroke, other cardiovascular diseases, and some cancers are associated with a similar risk, and in many countries, a higher risk of premature death than ischaemic heart disease. Although premature mortality from NCDs is declining in most countries, for most the pace of change is too slow to achieve SDG target 3.4. To investigate the options available to each country for achieving SDG target 3.4, we considered different scenarios, each representing a combination of fast (annual rate achieved by the tenth best performing percentile of all countries) and average (median of all countries) declines in risk of premature death from NCDs. Pathways analysis shows that every country has options for achieving SDG target 3.4. No country could achieve the target by addressing a single disease. In at least half the countries, achieving the target requires improvements in the rate of decline in at least five causes for women and in at least seven causes for men to the same rate achieved by the tenth best performing percentile of all countries. Tobacco and alcohol control and effective health-system interventions—including hypertension and diabetes treatment; primary and secondary cardiovascular disease prevention in high-risk individuals; low-dose inhaled corticosteroids and bronchodilators for asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; treatment of acute cardiovascular diseases, diabetes complications, and exacerbations of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; and effective cancer screening and treatment—will reduce NCD causes of death necessary to achieve SDG target 3.4 in most countries.

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          Most cited references9

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          Contributions of risk factors and medical care to cardiovascular mortality trends.

          Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and other cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) lead to 17.5 million deaths worldwide per year. Taking into account population ageing, CVD death rates are decreasing steadily both in regions with reliable trend data and globally. The declines in high-income countries and some Latin American countries have been ongoing for decades without slowing. These positive trends have broadly coincided with, and benefited from, declines in smoking and physiological risk factors, such as blood pressure and serum cholesterol levels. These declines have also coincided with, and benefited from, improvements in medical care, including primary prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of acute CVDs, as well as post-hospital care, especially in the past 40 years. These variables, however, explain neither why the decline began when it did, nor the similarities and differences in the start time and rate of the decline between countries and sexes. In Russia and some other former Soviet countries, changes in volume and patterns of alcohol consumption have caused sharp rises in CVD mortality since the early 1990s. An important challenge in reaching firm conclusions about the drivers of these remarkable international trends is the paucity of time-trend data on CVD incidence, risk factors throughout the life-course, and clinical care.
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            Can noncommunicable diseases be prevented? Lessons from studies of populations and individuals.

            Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs)--mainly cancers, cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, and chronic respiratory diseases--are responsible for about two-thirds of deaths worldwide, mostly in low- and middle-income countries. There is an urgent need for policies and strategies that prevent NCDs by reducing their major risk factors. Effective approaches for large-scale NCD prevention include comprehensive tobacco and alcohol control through taxes and regulation of sales and advertising; reducing dietary salt, unhealthy fats, and sugars through regulation and well-designed public education; increasing the consumption of fresh fruits and vegetables, healthy fats, and whole grains by lowering prices and improving availability; and implementing a universal, effective, and equitable primary-care system that reduces NCD risk factors, including cardiometabolic risk factors and infections that are precursors to NCDs, through clinical interventions.
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              Cardiovascular, respiratory, and related disorders: key messages from Disease Control Priorities , 3rd edition

              Cardiovascular, respiratory, and related disorders (CVRDs) are the leading causes of adult death worldwide, and substantial inequalities in care of patients with CVRDs exist between countries of high income and countries of low and middle income. Based on current trends, the UN Sustainable Development Goal to reduce premature mortality due to CVRDs by a third by 2030 will be challenging for many countries of low and middle income. We did systematic literature reviews of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness to identify priority interventions. We summarise the key findings and present a costed essential package of interventions to reduce risk of and manage CVRDs. On a population level, we recommend tobacco taxation, bans on trans fats, and compulsory reduction of salt in manufactured food products. We suggest primary health services be strengthened through the establishment of locally endorsed guidelines and ensured availability of essential medications. The policy interventions and health service delivery package we suggest could serve as the cornerstone for the management of CVRDs, and afford substantial financial risk protection for vulnerable households. We estimate that full implementation of the essential package would cost an additional US$21 per person in the average low-income country and $24 in the average lower-middle-income country. The essential package we describe could be a starting place for low-income and middle-income countries developing universal health coverage packages. Interventions could be rolled out as disease burden demands and budgets allow. Our outlined interventions provide a pathway for countries attempting to convert the UN Sustainable Development Goal commitments into tangible action.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Lancet
                Lancet
                Lancet (London, England)
                Elsevier Ltd.
                0140-6736
                1474-547X
                3 September 2020
                3 September 2020
                Author notes
                [†]

                Collaborators listed at the end of the paper

                Article
                S0140-6736(20)31761-X
                10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31761-X
                7470795
                32891217
                a5c8ca8b-817a-45d9-ad0b-48c698b63bf7
                © 2020 World Health Organization. Published by Elsevier Ltd/Inc/BV. All rights reserved

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