Inversión privada, gasto público y presión tributaria en América Latina

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Abstract

Resumen: 12. Este artículo busca evidencia empírica acerca de si un aumento de los impuestos, del gasto público y en general, un estado muy intervencionista estimula o desestimula la inversión privada en América Latina. Usando los mismos determinantes de la inversión privada que Caballero-Urdiales y López-Gallardo (2012), extendemos su análisis de cinco países latinoamericanos a toda América Latina. Los resultados a partir de nuestras elasticidades estimadas muestran evidencia consistente con tres hipótesis: (1) que la presión tributaria (impuestos sobre renta y consumo) tiene efectos significativos en la inversión privada; (2) que la inversión pública tiene un efecto de crowding out con la inversión privada; (3) y que para estimular la inversión privada, se prefiere que el gobierno sea poco intervencionista.

Translated abstract

Abstract: 18. This paper looks for empirical evidence to show if a very interventionist government stimulates or not private investment in Latin America. Using the same model as Caballero-Urdiales y López-Gallardo (2012), we extend their analysis from five Latin-American countries to all Latin America. The results from our estimated elasticities show evidence in support of three hypothesis: (1) that tax burden (taxes on income and consumption) has significant effects on private-investment; (2) that public investment has a crowding out effect with private investment; (3) and that in order to stimulate private investment, the government should have very little intervention.

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Dynamic panel data models: a guide to micro data methods and practice

Stephen R. Bond (2002)

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Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data, second edition

Jeffrey M. Wooldridge (2010)

The second edition of a comprehensive state-of-the-art graduate level text on microeconometric methods, substantially revised and updated. The second edition of this acclaimed graduate text provides a unified treatment of two methods used in contemporary econometric research, cross section and data panel methods. By focusing on assumptions that can be given behavioral content, the book maintains an appropriate level of rigor while emphasizing intuitive thinking. The analysis covers both linear and nonlinear models, including models with dynamics and/or individual heterogeneity. In addition to general estimation frameworks (particular methods of moments and maximum likelihood), specific linear and nonlinear methods are covered in detail, including probit and logit models and their multivariate, Tobit models, models for count data, censored and missing data schemes, causal (or treatment) effects, and duration analysis. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data was the first graduate econometrics text to focus on microeconomic data structures, allowing assumptions to be separated into population and sampling assumptions. This second edition has been substantially updated and revised. Improvements include a broader class of models for missing data problems; more detailed treatment of cluster problems, an important topic for empirical researchers; expanded discussion of "generalized instrumental variables" (GIV) estimation; new coverage (based on the author's own recent research) of inverse probability weighting; a more complete framework for estimating treatment effects with panel data, and a firmly established link between econometric approaches to nonlinear panel data and the "generalized estimating equation" literature popular in statistics and other fields. New attention is given to explaining when particular econometric methods can be applied; the goal is not only to tell readers what does work, but why certain "obvious" procedures do not. The numerous included exercises, both theoretical and computer-based, allow the reader to extend methods covered in the text and discover new insights.