Potential ecological impacts of climate intervention by reflecting sunlight to cool Earth

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Abstract

As the effects of anthropogenic climate change become more severe, several approaches for deliberate climate intervention to reduce or stabilize Earth’s surface temperature have been proposed. Solar radiation modification (SRM) is one potential approach to partially counteract anthropogenic warming by reflecting a small proportion of the incoming solar radiation to increase Earth’s albedo. While climate science research has focused on the predicted climate effects of SRM, almost no studies have investigated the impacts that SRM would have on ecological systems. The impacts and risks posed by SRM would vary by implementation scenario, anthropogenic climate effects, geographic region, and by ecosystem, community, population, and organism. Complex interactions among Earth’s climate system and living systems would further affect SRM impacts and risks. We focus here on stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI), a well-studied and relatively feasible SRM scheme that is likely to have a large impact on Earth’s surface temperature. We outline current gaps in knowledge about both helpful and harmful predicted effects of SAI on ecological systems. Desired ecological outcomes might also inform development of future SAI implementation scenarios. In addition to filling these knowledge gaps, increased collaboration between ecologists and climate scientists would identify a common set of SAI research goals and improve the communication about potential SAI impacts and risks with the public. Without this collaboration, forecasts of SAI impacts will overlook potential effects on biodiversity and ecosystem services for humanity.

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Author and article information

Journal

Journal ID (nlm-ta): Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A

Journal ID (iso-abbrev): Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A

Journal ID (hwp): pnas

Journal ID (pmc): pnas

Journal ID (publisher-id): PNAS

Title: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Publisher: National Academy of Sciences

ISSN (Print): 0027-8424

ISSN (Electronic): 1091-6490

Publication date (Print): 13 April 2021

Publication date (Electronic): 05 April 2021

Publication date PMC-release: 05 April 2021

Volume: 118

Issue: 15

Electronic Location Identifier: e1921854118

Affiliations

[1] ^aDepartment of Integrative Biology, Michigan State University , East Lansing, MI 48824;

[2] ^bEcology, Evolution, and Behavior Program, Michigan State University , East Lansing, MI 48824;

[3] ^cDepartment of Ecology and Evolution, Stony Brook University , Stony Brook, NY 11794-5245;

[4] ^dDepartment of Botany and Plant Sciences, University of California, Riverside , CA 92521;

[5] ^eAdvanced Science Research Center at the Graduate Center, City University of New York , New York, NY 10031;

[6] ^fCary Institute of Ecosystem Studies , Millbrook, NY 12545;

[7] ^gSchool of Earth Environmental and Marine Science, University of Texas Rio Grande Valley , Edinburg, TX 78539;

[8] ^hInstitute on the Environment, University of Minnesota , St. Paul, MN 55108;

[9] ⁱDepartment of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, University of Minnesota , St. Paul, MN 55108;

[10] ^jComputational Earth Sciences Group, Oak Ridge National Laboratory , Oak Ridge, TN 37831;

[11] ^kDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Tennessee , Knoxville, TN 37996;

[12] ^lDepartment of Plant and Microbial Biology, University of Minnesota , St. Paul, MN 55108;

[13] ^mInstitut de Recherche en Biologie Végétale, Département de Sciences Biologiques, Université de Montréal , Montréal, Québec, Canada H1X 2B2;

[14] ⁿDepartment of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University , New Brunswick, NJ 08901-8551;

[15] ^oAtmospheric Chemistry, Observations, and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80301;

[16] ^pSibley School of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, 14850;

[17] ^qDivision of Ecology and Biodiversity, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Hong Kong , Hong Kong, China

Author notes

²To whom correspondence may be addressed. Email: jfrankl@ 123456ucr.edu .

Edited by Bruce A. Menge, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, and accepted by Editorial Board Member Akkihebbal R. Ravishankara December 29, 2020 (received for review February 28, 2020)

Author contributions: P.L.Z., J.G., J.F., P.M.G., and A.R. designed research; C.S.H. analyzed data; P.L.Z., J.G., J.F., P.M.G., C.S.H., J.J.H., F.M.H., S.K., A.R., S.T., D.V., J.W., L.X., and C.-E.Y. performed research and wrote the paper.

¹P.L.Z. and J.G. contributed equally to this work.