Assessing progress of India in reduction of premature mortality due to four noncommunicable diseases towards achieving the WHO 25×25 goal and the sustainable development goals

Abstract

The World Health Organization (WHO) adopted a global noncommunicable disease monitoring framework in 2013 with a target of a 25% reduction in premature mortality from four noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) such as cancer, diabetes, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and chronic respiratory disease (CRD) by 2025 compared to 2010. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) target to reduce premature deaths from the four major NCDs by one‐third from 2015 to 2030. The objective of this study was to estimate the trend and reduction in premature mortality in India due to 4 major NCDs combined and separately between 2001 and 2030 and compare its progress toward the WHO and SDG target achievement. The publicly available data from the census for population and the Sample Registration System (SRS) for cause of death by 5‐year‐age groups were extracted. Age standardized premature mortality rates, unconditional probability of dying and annual percent change (APC) were computed. The premature mortality for four major NCDs decreased by −13.9% from 2010 to 2025 and by −15.6% from 2015 to 2030. The percentage changes in premature mortality from 2010 to 2025 were −33.9%, −17.4%, −9.3%, and 6.9% for CRD, cancer, CVD and diabetes respectively. For 2015–2030, these changes were −21.7%, −11.5%, −15.4%, and −15.1%. A significant reduction trend was observed for CRD with an average APC of −5.2%. The current reduction trend in premature mortality indicates that either the 25% reduction by 2025 or a one‐third reduction by 2030 will require intensive implementation of policies and program for NCD reduction.