HbA1cPredicts Time to Diagnosis of Type 1 Diabetes in Children at Risk

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Abstract

Prediction of type 1 diabetes is based on the detection of multiple islet autoantibodies in subjects who are at increased genetic risk. Prediction of the timing of diagnosis is challenging, however. We assessed the utility of HbA1c levels in predicting the clinical disease in genetically predisposed children with multiple autoantibodies. Cord blood samples from 168,055 newborn infants were screened for class II HLA genotypes in Finland, and 14,876 children with increased genetic risk for type 1 diabetes were invited to participate in regular follow-ups, including screening for diabetes-associated autoantibodies. When two or more autoantibodies were detected, HbA1c levels were analyzed at each visit. During follow-up, multiple (two or more) autoantibodies developed in 466 children; type 1 diabetes was diagnosed in 201 of these children (43%, progressors), while 265 children remained disease free (nonprogressors) by December 2011. A 10% increase in HbA1c levels in samples obtained 3-12 months apart predicted the diagnosis of clinical disease (hazard ratio [HR] 5.7 [95% CI 4.1-7.9]) after a median time of 1.1 years (interquartile range [IQR] 0.6-3.1 years) from the observed rise of HbA1c. If the HbA1c level was ≥5.9% (41 mmol/mol) in two consecutive samples, the median time to diagnosis was 0.9 years (IQR 0.3-1.5, HR 11.9 [95% CI 8.8-16.0]). In conclusion, HbA1c is a useful biochemical marker when predicting the time to diagnosis of type 1 diabetes in children with multiple autoantibodies.

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Defining the relationship between plasma glucose and HbA(1c): analysis of glucose profiles and HbA(1c) in the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial.

C. L. Rohlfing, H.-M. Wiedmeyer, R. Little … (2002)

To define the relationship between HbA(1c) and plasma glucose (PG) levels in patients with type 1 diabetes using data from the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial (DCCT). The DCCT was a multicenter, randomized clinical trial designed to compare intensive and conventional therapies and their relative effects on the development and progression of diabetic complications in patients with type 1 diabetes. Quarterly HbA(1c) and corresponding seven-point capillary blood glucose profiles (premeal, postmeal, and bedtime) obtained in the DCCT were analyzed to define the relationship between HbA(1c) and PG. Only data from complete profiles with corresponding HbA(1c) were used (n = 26,056). Of the 1,441 subjects who participated in the study, 2 were excluded due to missing data. Mean plasma glucose (MPG) was estimated by multiplying capillary blood glucose by 1.11. Linear regression analysis weighted by the number of observations per subject was used to correlate MPG and HbA(1c). Linear regression analysis, using MPG and HbA(1c) summarized by patient (n = 1,439), produced a relationship of MPG (mmol/l) = (1.98 . HbA(1c)) - 4.29 or MPG (mg/dl) = (35.6 . HbA(1c)) - 77.3, r = 0.82). Among individual time points, afternoon and evening PG (postlunch, predinner, postdinner, and bedtime) showed higher correlations with HbA(1c) than the morning time points (prebreakfast, postbreakfast, and prelunch). We have defined the relationship between HbA(1c) and PG as assessed in the DCCT. Knowing this relationship can help patients with diabetes and their healthcare providers set day-to-day targets for PG to achieve specific HbA(1c) goals.

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Trends in childhood type 1 diabetes incidence in Europe during 1989-2008: evidence of non-uniformity over time in rates of increase.

C Patterson, E Gyürüs, J. Rosenbauer … (2012)

The aim of the study was to describe 20-year incidence trends for childhood type 1 diabetes in 23 EURODIAB centres and compare rates of increase in the first (1989-1998) and second (1999-2008) halves of the period. All registers operate in geographically defined regions and are based on a clinical diagnosis. Completeness of registration is assessed by capture-recapture methodology. Twenty-three centres in 19 countries registered 49,969 new cases of type 1 diabetes in individuals diagnosed before their 15th birthday during the period studied. Ascertainment exceeded 90% in most registers. During the 20-year period, all but one register showed statistically significant changes in incidence, with rates universally increasing. When estimated separately for the first and second halves of the period, the median rates of increase were similar: 3.4% per annum and 3.3% per annum, respectively. However, rates of increase differed significantly between the first half and the second half for nine of the 21 registers with adequate coverage of both periods; five registers showed significantly higher rates of increase in the first half, and four significantly higher rates in the second half. The incidence rate of childhood type 1 diabetes continues to rise across Europe by an average of approximately 3-4% per annum, but the increase is not necessarily uniform, showing periods of less rapid and more rapid increase in incidence in some registers. This pattern of change suggests that important risk exposures differ over time in different European countries. Further time trend analysis and comparison of the patterns in defined regions is warranted.

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Nasal insulin to prevent type 1 diabetes in children with HLA genotypes and autoantibodies conferring increased risk of disease: a double-blind, randomised controlled trial.

Antti Kupila, I Sipilä, Heikki Hyöty … (2008)

In mouse models of diabetes, prophylactic administration of insulin reduced incidence of the disease. We investigated whether administration of nasal insulin decreased the incidence of type 1 diabetes, in children with HLA genotypes and autoantibodies increasing the risk of the disease. At three university hospitals in Turku, Oulu, and Tampere (Finland), we analysed cord blood samples of 116 720 consecutively born infants, and 3430 of their siblings, for the HLA-DQB1 susceptibility alleles for type 1 diabetes. 17 397 infants and 1613 siblings had increased genetic risk, of whom 11 225 and 1574, respectively, consented to screening of diabetes-associated autoantibodies at every 3-12 months. In a double-blind trial, we randomly assigned 224 infants and 40 siblings positive for two or more autoantibodies, in consecutive samples, to receive short-acting human insulin (1 unit/kg; n=115 and n=22) or placebo (n=109 and n=18) once a day intranasally. We used a restricted randomisation, stratified by site, with permuted blocks of size two. Primary endpoint was diagnosis of diabetes. Analysis was by intention to treat. The study was terminated early because insulin had no beneficial effect. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00223613. Median duration of the intervention was 1.8 years (range 0-9.7). Diabetes was diagnosed in 49 index children randomised to receive insulin, and in 47 randomised to placebo (hazard ratio [HR] 1.14; 95% CI 0.73-1.77). 42 and 38 of these children, respectively, continued treatment until diagnosis, with yearly rates of diabetes onset of 16.8% (95% CI 11.7-21.9) and 15.3% (10.5-20.2). Seven siblings were diagnosed with diabetes in the insulin group, versus six in the placebo group (HR 1.93; 0.56-6.77). In all randomised children, diabetes was diagnosed in 56 in the insulin group, and 53 in the placebo group (HR 0.98; 0.67-1.43, p=0.91). In children with HLA-conferred susceptibility to diabetes, administration of nasal insulin, started soon after detection of autoantibodies, could not be shown to prevent or delay type 1 diabetes.