Predicting the number of total COVID-19 cases and deaths in Brazil by the Gompertz model

Abstract

In this work, we estimate the total number of infected and deaths by COVID-19 in Brazil and two Brazilian States (Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo). To obtain the unknown data, we use an iterative method in the Gompertz model, whose formulation is well known in the field of biology. Based on data collected from the Ministry of Health from February 26, 2020, to July 2, 2020, we predict, from July 3 to 9 and at the end of the epidemic, the number of infected and killed for the whole country and for the Brazilian states of Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. We estimate, until July 9, 2020, a total of 1,709,755 cases and 65,384 deaths in Brazil, 331,718 cases and 15,621 deaths in Sao Paulo, 134,454 cases and 11,574 deaths in Rio de Janeiro. We also estimate the basic reproduction number \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$R_0$$\end{document} for Brazil and its two states. The estimated values \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$(R_0)$$\end{document} were 1.3, 1.3, and 1.4 for Brazil, Sao Paulo, and Rio de Janeiro, respectively. The results show a good fit between the observed data and those obtained by the Gompertz. The proposed methodology can also be applied to other countries and Brazilian states, and we provide an executable as well as the source code for a straightforward application of the method on such data.