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      A synthesis of evidence for policy from behavioural science during COVID-19

      research-article
      1 , 2 , 3 , , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 11 , 12 , 13 , 14 , 15 , 16 , 17 , 18 , 19 , 20 , 21 , 22 , 23 , 6 , 24 , 25 , 26 , 27 , 28 , 29 , 30 , 26 , 23 , 18 , 22 , 31 , 32 , 33 , 34 , 14 , 1 , 35 , 36 , 37 , 10 , 38 , 39 , 4 , 5 , 40 , 41 , 42 , 43 , 44 , 45 , 46 , 47 , 48 , 49 , 50 , 51 , 52 , 53 , 54 , 2 , 55 , 56 , 57 , 58 , 59 , 60 , 61 , 62 , 63 , 64 , 65 , 66 , 35 , 67 , 68 , 69 , 70 , 71 , 72 , 73 , 74 , 75 , 76 , 77 , 78 , 31 , 31 , 31 , 79 , 80 , 81 , 82 , 83 , 84
      Nature
      Nature Publishing Group UK
      Human behaviour, Society, Policy, Psychology

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          Abstract

          Scientific evidence regularly guides policy decisions 1 , with behavioural science increasingly part of this process 2 . In April 2020, an influential paper 3 proposed 19 policy recommendations (‘claims’) detailing how evidence from behavioural science could contribute to efforts to reduce impacts and end the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we assess 747 pandemic-related research articles that empirically investigated those claims. We report the scale of evidence and whether evidence supports them to indicate applicability for policymaking. Two independent teams, involving 72 reviewers, found evidence for 18 of 19 claims, with both teams finding evidence supporting 16 (89%) of those 18 claims. The strongest evidence supported claims that anticipated culture, polarization and misinformation would be associated with policy effectiveness. Claims suggesting trusted leaders and positive social norms increased adherence to behavioural interventions also had strong empirical support, as did appealing to social consensus or bipartisan agreement. Targeted language in messaging yielded mixed effects and there were no effects for highlighting individual benefits or protecting others. No available evidence existed to assess any distinct differences in effects between using the terms ‘physical distancing’ and ‘social distancing’. Analysis of 463 papers containing data showed generally large samples; 418 involved human participants with a mean of 16,848 (median of 1,699). That statistical power underscored improved suitability of behavioural science research for informing policy decisions. Furthermore, by implementing a standardized approach to evidence selection and synthesis, we amplify broader implications for advancing scientific evidence in policy formulation and prioritization.

          Abstract

          Evaluation of evidence generated to test 19 proposed policy recommendations and guidance for the future.

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          Most cited references132

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          Using social and behavioural science to support COVID-19 pandemic response

          The COVID-19 pandemic represents a massive global health crisis. Because the crisis requires large-scale behaviour change and places significant psychological burdens on individuals, insights from the social and behavioural sciences can be used to help align human behaviour with the recommendations of epidemiologists and public health experts. Here we discuss evidence from a selection of research topics relevant to pandemics, including work on navigating threats, social and cultural influences on behaviour, science communication, moral decision-making, leadership, and stress and coping. In each section, we note the nature and quality of prior research, including uncertainty and unsettled issues. We identify several insights for effective response to the COVID-19 pandemic and highlight important gaps researchers should move quickly to fill in the coming weeks and months.
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            Rapid Systematic Review: The Impact of Social Isolation and Loneliness on the Mental Health of Children and Adolescents in the Context of COVID-19

            Objective Disease containment of COVID-19 has necessitated widespread social isolation. We aimed to establish what is known about how loneliness and disease containment measures impact on the mental health in children and adolescents. Method For this rapid review, we searched MEDLINE, PSYCHINFO, and Web of Science for articles published between 01/01/1946 and 03/29/2020. 20% of articles were double screened using pre-defined criteria and 20% of data was double extracted for quality assurance. Results 83 articles (80 studies) met inclusion criteria. Of these, 63 studies reported on the impact of social isolation and loneliness on the mental health of previously healthy children and adolescents (n=51,576; mean age 15.3) 61 studies were observational; 18 were longitudinal and 43 cross sectional studies assessing self-reported loneliness in healthy children and adolescents. One of these studies was a retrospective investigation after a pandemic. Two studies evaluated interventions. Studies had a high risk of bias although longitudinal studies were of better methodological quality. Social isolation and loneliness increased the risk of depression, and possibly anxiety at the time loneliness was measured and between 0.25 to 9 years later. Duration of loneliness was more strongly correlated with mental health symptoms than intensity of loneliness. Conclusion Children and adolescents are probably more likely to experience high rates of depression and probably anxiety during and after enforced isolation ends. This may increase as enforced isolation continues. Clinical services should offer preventative support and early intervention where possible and be prepared for an increase in mental health problems.
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              Ranking the effectiveness of worldwide COVID-19 government interventions

              Assessing the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to mitigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 is critical to inform future preparedness response plans. Here we quantify the impact of 6,068 hierarchically coded NPIs implemented in 79 territories on the effective reproduction number, Rt, of COVID-19. We propose a modelling approach that combines four computational techniques merging statistical, inference and artificial intelligence tools. We validate our findings with two external datasets recording 42,151 additional NPIs from 226 countries. Our results indicate that a suitable combination of NPIs is necessary to curb the spread of the virus. Less disruptive and costly NPIs can be as effective as more intrusive, drastic, ones (for example, a national lockdown). Using country-specific 'what-if' scenarios, we assess how the effectiveness of NPIs depends on the local context such as timing of their adoption, opening the way for forecasting the effectiveness of future interventions.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                kai.ruggeri@columbia.edu
                Journal
                Nature
                Nature
                Nature
                Nature Publishing Group UK (London )
                0028-0836
                1476-4687
                13 December 2023
                13 December 2023
                2024
                : 625
                : 7993
                : 134-147
                Affiliations
                [1 ]GRID grid.21729.3f, ISNI 0000000419368729, Department of Health Policy and Management, , Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, ; New York City, NY USA
                [2 ]Policy Research Group, Centre for Business Research, Judge Business School, University of Cambridge, ( https://ror.org/013meh722) Cambridge, UK
                [3 ]274th ASOS, US Air Force/New York Air National Guard, Syracuse, NY United States
                [4 ]Center for Adaptive Rationality, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, ( https://ror.org/02pp7px91) Berlin, Germany
                [5 ]GRID grid.7468.d, ISNI 0000 0001 2248 7639, Department of Psychology, , Humboldt University of Berlin, ; Berlin, Germany
                [6 ]University of Queensland, ( https://ror.org/00rqy9422) St Lucia, Queensland Australia
                [7 ]GRID grid.7563.7, ISNI 0000 0001 2174 1754, University of Milan-Bicocca, ; Milan, Italy
                [8 ]Mackenzie Presbyterian University, ( https://ror.org/006nc8n95) São Paulo, Brazil
                [9 ]National Institute of Science and Technology on Social and Affective Neuroscience, CNPq, São Paulo, Brazil
                [10 ]Utrecht University, ( https://ror.org/04pp8hn57) Utrecht, Netherlands
                [11 ]University of Kent, ( https://ror.org/00xkeyj56) Canterbury, UK
                [12 ]Massachusetts Institute of Technology, ( https://ror.org/042nb2s44) Cambridge, MA USA
                [13 ]Department of Psychology, University of Cambridge, ( https://ror.org/013meh722) Cambridge, UK
                [14 ]Harvard University, ( https://ror.org/03vek6s52) Cambridge, MA USA
                [15 ]Department of Psychology, Northwestern University, ( https://ror.org/000e0be47) Evanston, IL USA
                [16 ]Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University, ( https://ror.org/000e0be47) Evanston, IL USA
                [17 ]Northwestern University, ( https://ror.org/000e0be47) Evanston, IL USA
                [18 ]Department of Psychology, Carleton University, ( https://ror.org/02qtvee93) Ottawa, Ontario Canada
                [19 ]Department of Psychology, Ohio State University, ( https://ror.org/00rs6vg23) Columbus, OH USA
                [20 ]Department of Politics & Center for Social Media and Politics, New York University, ( https://ror.org/0190ak572) New York, NY USA
                [21 ]Department of Psychology, University of British Columbia, ( https://ror.org/03rmrcq20) Vancouver, British Columbia Canada
                [22 ]Stanford University, ( https://ror.org/00f54p054) Stanford, CA USA
                [23 ]Lehigh University, ( https://ror.org/012afjb06) Bethlehem, PA USA
                [24 ]Institute for Brain and Behavior Amsterdam, Department of Experimental and Applied Psychology, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, ( https://ror.org/008xxew50) Amsterdam, Netherlands
                [25 ]Global Faculty, Social and Economic Behavior, University of Cologne, ( https://ror.org/00rcxh774) Cologne, Germany
                [26 ]Cornell University, ( https://ror.org/05bnh6r87) Ithaca, NY USA
                [27 ]Center for Science Communication Research, School of Journalism and Communication, University of Oregon, ( https://ror.org/0293rh119) Eugene, OR USA
                [28 ]Psychology Department, University of Oregon, ( https://ror.org/0293rh119) Eugene, OR USA
                [29 ]University of Chicago, ( https://ror.org/024mw5h28) Chicago, IL USA
                [30 ]Department of Psychology, Stanford University, ( https://ror.org/00f54p054) Stanford, CA USA
                [31 ]University of Illinois Chicago, ( https://ror.org/02mpq6x41) Chicago, IL USA
                [32 ]University of Michigan, ( https://ror.org/00jmfr291) Ann Arbor, MI USA
                [33 ]Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, California Institute of Technology, ( https://ror.org/05dxps055) Pasadena, CA USA
                [34 ]Computation and Neural Systems Program, California Institute of Technology, ( https://ror.org/05dxps055) Pasadena, CA USA
                [35 ]Department of Experimental Psychology, University of Oxford, ( https://ror.org/052gg0110) Oxford, UK
                [36 ]Department of Social Policy and Evaluation, University of Oxford, ( https://ror.org/052gg0110) Oxford, UK
                [37 ]University of Tehran, ( https://ror.org/05vf56z40) Tehran, Iran
                [38 ]Cowry Consulting, London, UK
                [39 ]University of Oxford, ( https://ror.org/052gg0110) Oxford, UK
                [40 ]Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Maryland, ( https://ror.org/047s2c258) College Park, MD USA
                [41 ]Junior Researcher Programme, Cambridge, UK
                [42 ]Department of Developmental and Educational Psychology, Faculty of Psychology, University of Vienna, ( https://ror.org/03prydq77) Vienna, Austria
                [43 ]GRID grid.10784.3a, ISNI 0000 0004 1937 0482, Department of Psychology, , The Chinese University of Hong Kong, ; Hong Kong SAR, China
                [44 ]Department of Psychology, York University, ( https://ror.org/05fq50484) Toronto, Ontario Canada
                [45 ]GRID grid.17063.33, ISNI 0000 0001 2157 2938, Rotman Research Institute, , Baycrest Academy for Research and Education, ; Toronto, Ontario Canada
                [46 ]Department of Psychology, Faculty of Arts, University of Ljubljana, ( https://ror.org/05njb9z20) Ljubljana, Slovenia
                [47 ]Centre for Applied Epistemology, Educational Research Institute, ( https://ror.org/02xztm077) Ljubljana, Slovenia
                [48 ]Faculty of Arts and Science, Kyushu University, ( https://ror.org/00p4k0j84) Fukuoka, Japan
                [49 ]Haas School of Business, University of California Berkeley, ( https://ror.org/01an7q238) Berkeley, CA USA
                [50 ]City, University of London, ( https://ror.org/04cw6st05) London, UK
                [51 ]GRID grid.448631.c, ISNI 0000 0004 5903 2808, Duke Kunshan University, ; Kunshan, China
                [52 ]Center for Social Norms and Behavioral Dynamics, University of Pennsylvania, ( https://ror.org/00b30xv10) Philadelphia, PA USA
                [53 ]GRID grid.469877.3, ISNI 0000 0004 0397 0846, CESifo, ; Munich, Germany
                [54 ]Environmental Psychology, Department of Cognition, Emotion, and Methods in Psychology, Faculty of Psychology, University of Vienna, ( https://ror.org/03prydq77) Vienna, Austria
                [55 ]GRID grid.10388.32, ISNI 0000 0001 2240 3300, University of Bonn, University Hospital Bonn, Institute of General Practice and Family Medicine, ; Bonn, Germany
                [56 ]GRID grid.5601.2, ISNI 0000 0001 0943 599X, Mannheim Centre for European Social Research, , University of Mannheim, ; Mannheim, Germany
                [57 ]GRID grid.5335.0, ISNI 0000000121885934, MRC Cognition and Brain Sciences Unit, , University of Cambridge, ; Cambridge, UK
                [58 ]Psychology Department, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, University of Exeter, ( https://ror.org/03yghzc09) Exeter, UK
                [59 ]University College Dublin, ( https://ror.org/05m7pjf47) Dublin, Ireland
                [60 ]University of Groningen, ( https://ror.org/012p63287) Groningen, Netherlands
                [61 ]Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, ( https://ror.org/0438wbg98) Paris, France
                [62 ]University of Amsterdam, ( https://ror.org/04dkp9463) Amsterdam, Netherlands
                [63 ]The World Bank, ( https://ror.org/00ae7jd04) Washington DC, USA
                [64 ]Trinity College Institute of Neuroscience, Trinity College Dublin, ( https://ror.org/02tyrky19) Dublin, Ireland
                [65 ]Gordon Institute of Business Science, University of Pretoria, ( https://ror.org/00g0p6g84) Johannesburg, South Africa
                [66 ]Department of Psychology, University of Cologne, ( https://ror.org/00rcxh774) Cologne, Germany
                [67 ]GRID grid.4991.5, ISNI 0000 0004 1936 8948, University College, ; Oxford, UK
                [68 ]Department of Psychology, Loyola University Chicago, ( https://ror.org/04b6x2g63) Chicago, IL USA
                [69 ]Institute of Psychology, Faculty of Philosophy, University of Belgrade, ( https://ror.org/02qsmb048) Belgrade, Serbia
                [70 ]Jacobs Center for Productive Youth Development, University of Zurich, ( https://ror.org/02crff812) Zurich, Switzerland
                [71 ]Department of Psychology, University of Zurich, ( https://ror.org/02crff812) Zurich, Switzerland
                [72 ]Laboratorio de Neurociencia, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella, ( https://ror.org/04sxme922) Buenos Aires, Argentina
                [73 ]Escuela de Negocios, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella, ( https://ror.org/04sxme922) Buenos Aires, Argentina
                [74 ]Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), ( https://ror.org/03cqe8w59) Buenos Aires, Argentina
                [75 ]Charles University, ( https://ror.org/024d6js02) Prague, Czech Republic
                [76 ]Sungkyunkwan University, ( https://ror.org/04q78tk20) Seoul, Republic of Korea
                [77 ]University of Texas at Austin, ( https://ror.org/00hj54h04) Austin, TX USA
                [78 ]National University of Singapore, ( https://ror.org/01tgyzw49) Singapore, Singapore
                [79 ]Department of General, Experimental, Developmental, and Health Psychology, Sofia University St. Kliment Ohridski, ( https://ror.org/02jv3k292) Sofia, Bulgaria
                [80 ]Department of Psychological and Behavioural Science, London School of Economics, ( https://ror.org/0090zs177) London, UK
                [81 ]GRID grid.25879.31, ISNI 0000 0004 1936 8972, The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, ; Philadelphia, PA USA
                [82 ]Department of Psychology & Laboratory for Research of Individual Differences, Faculty of Philosophy, University of Belgrade, ( https://ror.org/02qsmb048) Belgrade, Serbia
                [83 ]Department of Psychology & Center for Neural Science, New York University, ( https://ror.org/0190ak572) New York, NY USA
                [84 ]Department of Sociology, Stanford University, ( https://ror.org/00f54p054) Stanford, CA USA
                Author information
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                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9523-7921
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0579-0166
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9810-1165
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0381-6924
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8975-2783
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0269-1744
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6612-4474
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0213-5318
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1249-6790
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6945-5562
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2870-8575
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1321-8650
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4444-460X
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8420-6548
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7774-6984
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0702-6169
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9975-8457
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9147-7936
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4194-3008
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0700-0073
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                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1925-2676
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8765-037X
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3413-9062
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5654-2883
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9706-4830
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2520-0442
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3404-6472
                Article
                6840
                10.1038/s41586-023-06840-9
                10764287
                38093007
                966c4c52-8cc2-4e23-8454-0f9a3fc7bb10
                © The Author(s) 2023

                Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

                History
                : 18 October 2022
                : 6 November 2023
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                human behaviour,society,policy,psychology
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                human behaviour, society, policy, psychology

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