Trends in Prostate Cancer Incidence and Mortality Rates

Key Points

Question

How are prostate cancer incidence and mortality rates changing in California, and do trends vary by stage, age, race and ethnicity, or region?

Findings

In this cohort study of males in California between 2004 and 2021, there were 387 636 cases of prostate cancer; the incidence rate of distant prostate cancer increased 6.7% per year, on average, between 2011 and 2021. On average, prostate cancer mortality rates declined 2.6% per year between 2004 and 2012 but plateaued between 2012 and 2021; trends in incidence and mortality were similar across age, race or ethnicity, and region.

Meaning

These findings suggest that in the 2010s, distant stage prostate cancer increased and mortality rates plateaued throughout California.

Abstract

This cohort study examines the trends in prostate cancer incidence and mortality rates in California by stage, age, race and ethnicity, and region of California.

Abstract

Importance

Incidence of distant stage prostate cancer is increasing in the United States. Research is needed to understand trends by social and geographic factors.

Objective

To examine trends in prostate cancer incidence and mortality rates in California by stage, age, race and ethnicity, and region.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study used mortality data from the California Cancer Registry and California Department of Public Health's Center for Health Statistics, and incidence data from the National Cancer Institute Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program and the US Census. The dataset for these analyses was released in April 2024. Participants included males residing in California between 2004 and 2021. Analyses were conducted from April to October 2024.

Exposures

Stage at diagnosis, age, race and ethnicity, and region of California.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The delay-adjusted incidence rates and mortality rates were calculated and age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population. Annual percentage changes (APC) were calculated using NCI’s Joinpoint Regression Program.

Results

Between 2004 and 2021, there were 387 636 prostate cancer cases (27 938 distant stage) and 58 754 prostate cancer deaths in California. In this study, 203 038 cases (52.4%) occurred among males aged 55 to 69 years, and 153 884 (39.7%) occurred among males 70 years or older. The distribution of race and ethnicity among cases was: 1031 American Indian or Alaska Native (0.3%); 31 366 Asian American, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander (8.1%); 66 695 Hispanic or Latino (17.2%); 36 808 non-Hispanic Black (9.5%); 238 229 non-Hispanic White (61.5%); and 13 507 unknown or other races (3.5%). On average, the incidence of distant prostate cancer increased 6.7% (95% CI, 6.2% to 7.3%) per year between 2011 and 2021. By race and ethnicity, the APC ranged from 6.5% (95% CI, 4.2% to 13.4%) among Asian American, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander males between 2011 and 2021 to 8.0% (95% CI, 6.9% to 9.5%) among Hispanic males between 2014 and 2021. In 9 of the 10 California regions, the incidence of distant prostate cancer increased by approximately 6% or more per year. Prostate cancer mortality rates declined 2.6% per year between 2004 and 2012 but plateaued between 2012 to 2021 (APC, 0.1%; 95% CI, −0.6% to 1.6%). The plateau in mortality occurred across ages, races and ethnicities, and regions.

Conclusions and relevance

In this cohort study among California residents, the incidence of distant stage prostate cancer increased throughout the state between 2011 and 2021. Mortality rates plateaued between 2012 and 2021, ending previous decades of decline. Implementation of more effective prostate cancer screening strategies are critically needed.