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Abstract
Inflammation may be important in the pathogenesis of atherothrombosis. We studied
whether inflammation increases the risk of a first thrombotic event and whether treatment
with aspirin decreases the risk.
We measured plasma C-reactive protein, a marker for systemic inflammation, in 543
apparently healthy men participating in the Physicians' Health Study in whom myocardial
infarction, stroke, or venous thrombosis subsequently developed, and in 543 study
participants who did not report vascular disease during a follow-up period exceeding
eight years. Subjects were randomly assigned to receive aspirin or placebo at the
beginning of the trial.
Base-line plasma C-reactive protein concentrations were higher among men who went
on to have myocardial infarction (1.51 vs. 1.13 mg per liter, P<0.001) or ischemic
stroke (1.38 vs. 1.13 mg per liter, P=0.02), but not venous thrombosis (1.26 vs. 1.13
mg per liter, P=0.34), than among men without vascular events. The men in the quartile
with the highest levels of C-reactive protein values had three times the risk of myocardial
infarction (relative risk, 2.9; P<0.001) and two times the risk of ischemic stroke
(relative risk, 1.9; P=0.02) of the men in the lowest quartile. Risks were stable
over long periods, were not modified by smoking, and were independent of other lipid-related
and non-lipid-related risk factors. The use of aspirin was associated with significant
reductions in the risk of myocardial infarction (55.7 percent reduction, P=0.02) among
men in the highest quartile but with only small, nonsignificant reductions among those
in the lowest quartile (13.9 percent, P=0.77).
The base-line plasma concentration of C-reactive protein predicts the risk of future
myocardial infarction and stroke. Moreover, the reduction associated with the use
of aspirin in the risk of a first myocardial infarction appears to be directly related
to the level of C-reactive protein, raising the possibility that antiinflammatory
agents may have clinical benefits in preventing cardiovascular disease.
Observational studies suggest that people who consume more fruits and vegetables containing beta carotene have somewhat lower risks of cancer and cardiovascular disease, and earlier basic research suggested plausible mechanisms. Because large randomized trials of long duration were necessary to test this hypothesis directly, we conducted a trial of beta carotene supplementation. In a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of beta carotene (50 mg on alternate days), we enrolled 22,071 male physicians, 40 to 84 years of age, in the United States; 11 percent were current smokers and 39 percent were former smokers at the beginning of the study in 1982. By December 31, 1995, the scheduled end of the study, fewer than 1 percent had been lost to follow-up, and compliance was 78 percent in the group that received beta carotene. Among 11,036 physicians randomly assigned to receive beta carotene and 11,035 assigned to receive placebo, there were virtually no early or late differences in the overall incidence of malignant neoplasms or cardiovascular disease, or in overall mortality. In the beta carotene group, 1273 men had any malignant neoplasm (except nonmelanoma skin cancer), as compared with 1293 in the placebo group (relative risk, 0.98; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.91 to 1.06). There were also no significant differences in the number of cases of lung cancer (82 in the beta carotene group vs. 88 in the placebo group); the number of deaths from cancer (386 vs. 380), deaths from any cause (979 vs. 968), or deaths from cardiovascular disease (338 vs. 313); the number of men with myocardial infarction (468 vs. 489); the number with stroke (367 vs. 382); or the number with any one of the previous three end points (967 vs. 972). Among current and former smokers, there were also no significant early or late differences in any of these end points. In this trial among healthy men, 12 years of supplementation with beta carotene produced neither benefit nor harm in terms of the incidence of malignant neoplasms, cardiovascular disease, or death from all causes.
The Physicians' Health Study is a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial designed to determine whether low-dose aspirin (325 mg every other day) decreases cardiovascular mortality and whether beta carotene reduces the incidence of cancer. The aspirin component was terminated earlier than scheduled, and the preliminary findings were published. We now present detailed analyses of the cardiovascular component for 22,071 participants, at an average follow-up time of 60.2 months. There was a 44 percent reduction in the risk of myocardial infarction (relative risk, 0.56; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.45 to 0.70; P less than 0.00001) in the aspirin group (254.8 per 100,000 per year as compared with 439.7 in the placebo group). A slightly increased risk of stroke among those taking aspirin was not statistically significant; this trend was observed primarily in the subgroup with hemorrhagic stroke (relative risk, 2.14; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.96 to 4.77; P = 0.06). No reduction in mortality from all cardiovascular causes was associated with aspirin (relative risk, 0.96; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.60 to 1.54). Further analyses showed that the reduction in the risk of myocardial infarction was apparent only among those who were 50 years of age and older. The benefit was present at all levels of cholesterol, but appeared greatest at low levels. The relative risk of ulcer in the aspirin group was 1.22 (169 in the aspirin group as compared with 138 in the placebo group; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.98 to 1.53; P = 0.08), and the relative risk of requiring a blood transfusion was 1.71. This trial of aspirin for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease demonstrates a conclusive reduction in the risk of myocardial infarction, but the evidence concerning stroke and total cardiovascular deaths remains inconclusive because of the inadequate numbers of physicians with these end points.
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