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      Exploring the dynamic impacts of COVID-19 on intercity travel in China

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          Abstract

          Many studies have explored the effects of transportation and population movement on the spread of pandemics. However, little attention has been paid to the dynamic impact of pandemics on intercity travel and its recovery during a public health event period. Using intercity mobility and COVID-19 pandemic data, this study adopts the gradient boosting decision tree method to explore the dynamic effects of the COVID-19 on intercity travel in China. The influencing factors were classified into daily time-varying factors and time-invariant factors. The results show that China's intercity travel decreased on average by 51.35% from Jan 26 to Apr 7, 2020. Furtherly, the COVID-19 pandemic reduces intercity travel directly and indirectly by influencing industry development and transport connectivity. With the spread of COVID-19 and changes of control measures, the relationship between intercity travel and COVID-19, socio-economic development, transport is not linear. The relationship between intercity travel and secondary industry is illustrated by an inverted U-shaped curve from pre-pandemic to post-pandemic, whereas that with tertiary industry can be explained by a U-shaped curve. Meanwhile, this study highlights the dynamic effect of the COVID-19 on intercity mobility. These implications shed light on policies regarding the control measures during public health events that should include the dynamic impact of pandemics on intercity travel.

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          Greedy function approximation: A gradient boosting machine.

          Jerome Friedman (2001)
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            Insights into the impact of COVID-19 on household travel and activities in Australia – The early days under restrictions

            Matthew Beck, David Hensher (2020)
            When 2020 began, we had no idea what was to unfold globally as we learnt about the Novel-Coronavirus in Wuhan, in the Hubei province of China. As this virus spread rapidly, it became a matter of time before many countries began to implement measures to try and contain the spread of the disease. COVID-19 as it is referred to, resulted in two main approaches to fighting the viral pandemic, either through a progressive set of measures to slow down the number of identified cases designed to ‘flatten the curve’ over time (anticipated to be at least six months), or to attack it by the severest of measures including a total lock-down and/or herding exposure to fast track ‘immunisation’ while we await a vaccine. The paper reports the findings from the first phase of an ongoing survey designed to identify the changing patterns in travel activity of Australian residents as a result of the stage 2 restrictions imposed by the Australian government. The main restrictions, in addition to social distancing of at least 1.5 m, are closure of entry to Australia (except residents returning), and closure of non-essential venues such as night clubs, restaurants, mass attendee sporting events, churches, weddings, and all social gatherings in any circumstance. With some employers encouraging working from home and others requiring it, in addition to job losses, and many children attending school online from home, the implications on travel activity is extreme. We identify the initial impacts associated with the first month of stricter social distancing measures introduced in Australia.
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              Insights into the impact of COVID-19 on household travel and activities in Australia – The early days of easing restrictions

              Matthew Beck, David Hensher (2020)
              The COVID-19 disease continues to cause unparalleled disruption to life and the economy world over. This paper is the second in what will be an ongoing series of analyses of a longitudinal travel and activity survey. In this paper we examine data collected over a period of late May to early June in Australia, following four-to-six weeks of relatively flat new cases in COVID-19 after the initial nationwide outbreak, as many state jurisdictions have begun to slowly ease restrictions designed to limit the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. We find that during this period, travel activity has started to slowly return, in particular by private car, and in particular for the purposes of shopping and social or recreational activities. Respondents indicate comfort with the idea of meeting friends or returning to shops, so authorities need to be aware of potential erosion of social distancing and appropriate COVID-safe behaviour in this regard. There is still a concern about using public transport, though it has diminished noticeably since the first wave of data collection. We see that working from home continues to be an important strategy in reducing travel and pressure on constrained transport networks, and a policy measure that if carried over to a post-pandemic world, will be an important step towards a more sustainable transport future. We find that work from home has been a generally positive experience with a significant number of respondents liking to work from home moving forward, with varying degrees of employer support, at a level above those seen before COVID-19. Thus, any investment to capitalise on current levels of work from home should be viewed as an investment in transport.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Journal ID (nlm-ta): J Transp Geogr
                Journal ID (iso-abbrev): J Transp Geogr
                Title: Journal of Transport Geography
                Publisher: Published by Elsevier Ltd.
                ISSN (Print): 0966-6923
                ISSN (Electronic): 1873-1236
                Publication date PMC-release: 26 July 2021
                Publication date (Print): July 2021
                Publication date (Electronic): 26 July 2021
                Volume: 95
                Page: 103153
                Affiliations
                [a ]Northwest Land and Resources Research Center, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an 710119, China
                [b ]Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
                [c ]College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
                [d ]College of Forestry and Landscape Architecture, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China
                Author notes
                [* ]Corresponding author at: Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China.
                Article
                Publisher Item ID: S0966-6923(21)00206-4 Publisher ID: 103153
                DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2021.103153
                PMC ID: 9759306
                PubMed ID: 36567951
                SO-VID: 8f50d54f-1b30-43c4-b1ef-ec86b7f293a9
                Copyright © © 2021 Published by Elsevier Ltd.
                License:

                Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.

                History
                Date received : 30 March 2021
                Date revision received : 5 June 2021
                Date accepted : 23 July 2021
                Categories
                Subject: Article

                Keywords: intercity travel,mobility,covid-19,gbdt model,time-varying
                Data availability:
                Keywords: intercity travel, mobility, covid-19, gbdt model, time-varying

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