Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic Surveillance of Visceral Leishmaniasis in Brazil: An Ecological Study

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Abstract

The aim of the study was to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the notification of new VL cases in Brazil in 2020. It is an ecological and time-series study (2015–2020) with spatial analysis techniques, whose units of analysis were the 5570 Brazilian municipalities. The study population consisted of all new cases of VL recorded between 2015 and 2020. The P-score was calculated to estimate the percentage variation in new VL cases. Global and local univariate Moran’s Indices and retrospective space–time scan statistics were used in spatial and space–time analyses, respectively. It was expected that there would be 3627 new cases of VL in Brazil in 2020, but 1932 cases were reported (−46.73%). All Brazilian regions presented a negative percentage variation in the registration of new VL cases, with the Southeast (−54.70%), North (−49.97%), and Northeast (−44.22%) standing out. There was spatial dependence of the disease nationwide in both periods, before and during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. There was a significant reduction in the incidence of new VL cases in Brazil during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings reinforce the need for better preparedness of the health system, especially in situations of new epidemics.

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Local Indicators of Spatial Association-LISA

Luc Anselin (1995)

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Potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study

Alexandra B. Hogan, Britta Jewell, Ellie Sherrard-Smith … (2020)

Summary Background COVID-19 has the potential to cause substantial disruptions to health services, due to cases overburdening the health system or response measures limiting usual programmatic activities. We aimed to quantify the extent to which disruptions to services for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries with high burdens of these diseases could lead to additional loss of life over the next 5 years. Methods Assuming a basic reproduction number of 3·0, we constructed four scenarios for possible responses to the COVID-19 pandemic: no action, mitigation for 6 months, suppression for 2 months, or suppression for 1 year. We used established transmission models of HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria to estimate the additional impact on health that could be caused in selected settings, either due to COVID-19 interventions limiting activities, or due to the high demand on the health system due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings In high-burden settings, deaths due to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria over 5 years could increase by up to 10%, 20%, and 36%, respectively, compared with if there was no COVID-19 pandemic. The greatest impact on HIV was estimated to be from interruption to antiretroviral therapy, which could occur during a period of high health system demand. For tuberculosis, the greatest impact would be from reductions in timely diagnosis and treatment of new cases, which could result from any prolonged period of COVID-19 suppression interventions. The greatest impact on malaria burden could be as a result of interruption of planned net campaigns. These disruptions could lead to a loss of life-years over 5 years that is of the same order of magnitude as the direct impact from COVID-19 in places with a high burden of malaria and large HIV and tuberculosis epidemics. Interpretation Maintaining the most critical prevention activities and health-care services for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria could substantially reduce the overall impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, UK Department for International Development, and Medical Research Council.