Evaluation of GPT-4 for 10-year cardiovascular risk prediction: Insights from the UK Biobank and KoGES data

Summary

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains a pressing global health concern. While traditional risk prediction methods such as the Framingham and American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) risk scores have been widely used in the practice, artificial intelligence (AI), especially GPT-4, offers new opportunities. Utilizing large scale of multi-center data from 47,468 UK Biobank participants and 5,718 KoGES participants, this study quantitatively evaluated the predictive capabilities of GPT-4 in comparison with traditional models. Our results suggest that the GPT-based score showed commendably comparable performance in CVD prediction when compared to traditional models (AUROC on UKB: 0.725 for GPT-4, 0.733 for ACC/AHA, 0.728 for Framingham; KoGES: 0.664 for GPT-4, 0.674 for ACC/AHA, 0.675 for Framingham). Even with omission of certain variables, GPT-4’s performance was robust, demonstrating its adaptability to data-scarce situations. In conclusion, this study emphasizes the promising role of GPT-4 in predicting CVD risks across varied ethnic datasets, pointing toward its expansive future applications in the medical practice.

Graphical abstract

Highlights

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  Quantitative evaluation of GPT-4 in CVD risk scoring

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  GPT-4 shows robust performance regardless of data omission

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  GPT-4 consistent in multi-ethnic dataset

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  Study underscores GPT-4’s potential in AI-driven healthcare

Abstract

Health sciences; Medicine; Health informatics; Cardiovascular medicine; Health technology; Artificial intelligence.