Early 21st century snow cover state over the western river basins of the
  Indus River system

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Abstract

In this paper we assess the snow cover and its dynamics for the western river basins of the Indus River system and their subbasins located in Afghanistan, China, India and Pakistan for the period 2001-2012. First, we validate the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) daily snow products from Terra and Aqua against the Landsat Thematic Mapper/Enhanced Thematic Mapper plus data set, and then improve them for clouds by applying a validated non spectral cloud removal technique. The improved snow product has been analysed on a seasonal and annual basis against different topographic parameters (aspect, elevation and slope). Our results show a decreasing tendency for the annual average snow cover for the westerlies influenced basins (upper Indus basin, Astore, Hunza, Shigar and Shyok) and an increasing tendency for the monsoon influenced basins (Jhelum, Kabul, Swat and Gilgit). Seasonal average snow cover decreases during winter and autumn, and increases during spring and summer, which is consistent with the observed cooling and warming trends during the respective seasons. Subbasins at relatively higher latitudes/altitudes show higher variability than basins at lower latitudes/middle altitudes. Northeastern and northwestern aspects feature greater snow cover. The mean end of summer regional snow line altitude (SLA) zones range from 3000 to 5000 m asl for all basins. Our analysis provides an indication of a descending end of summer regional SLA zone for most of the studied basins, which is significant for the Shyok and Kabul basins, thus indicating a change in their water resources. Such results are consistent with the observed hydroclimatic data, recently collected local perceptions and glacier mass balances for the investigated period within the UIB. Moreover, our analysis shows a significant correlation

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Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions.

T. P. Barnett, J. C. Adam, D. P. Lettenmaier (2005)

All currently available climate models predict a near-surface warming trend under the influence of rising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. In addition to the direct effects on climate--for example, on the frequency of heatwaves--this increase in surface temperatures has important consequences for the hydrological cycle, particularly in regions where water supply is currently dominated by melting snow or ice. In a warmer world, less winter precipitation falls as snow and the melting of winter snow occurs earlier in spring. Even without any changes in precipitation intensity, both of these effects lead to a shift in peak river runoff to winter and early spring, away from summer and autumn when demand is highest. Where storage capacities are not sufficient, much of the winter runoff will immediately be lost to the oceans. With more than one-sixth of the Earth's population relying on glaciers and seasonal snow packs for their water supply, the consequences of these hydrological changes for future water availability--predicted with high confidence and already diagnosed in some regions--are likely to be severe.

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Climate change will affect the Asian water towers.

Walter W. Immerzeel, Ludovicus P. H. van Beek, Marc F. P. Bierkens (2010)

More than 1.4 billion people depend on water from the Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Yangtze, and Yellow rivers. Upstream snow and ice reserves of these basins, important in sustaining seasonal water availability, are likely to be affected substantially by climate change, but to what extent is yet unclear. Here, we show that meltwater is extremely important in the Indus basin and important for the Brahmaputra basin, but plays only a modest role for the Ganges, Yangtze, and Yellow rivers. A huge difference also exists between basins in the extent to which climate change is predicted to affect water availability and food security. The Brahmaputra and Indus basins are most susceptible to reductions of flow, threatening the food security of an estimated 60 million people.

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The twentieth century was the wettest period in northern Pakistan over the past millennium.

Kerstin S Treydte, Gerhard Schleser, Gerhard Helle … (2006)

Twentieth-century warming could lead to increases in the moisture-holding capacity of the atmosphere, altering the hydrological cycle and the characteristics of precipitation. Such changes in the global rate and distribution of precipitation may have a greater direct effect on human well-being and ecosystem dynamics than changes in temperature itself. Despite the co-variability of both of these climate variables, attention in long-term climate reconstruction has mainly concentrated on temperature changes. Here we present an annually resolved oxygen isotope record from tree-rings, providing a millennial-scale reconstruction of precipitation variability in the high mountains of northern Pakistan. The climatic signal originates mainly from winter precipitation, and is robust over ecologically different sites. Centennial-scale variations reveal dry conditions at the beginning of the past millennium and through the eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries, with precipitation increasing during the late nineteenth and the twentieth centuries to yield the wettest conditions of the past 1,000 years. Comparison with other long-term precipitation reconstructions indicates a large-scale intensification of the hydrological cycle coincident with the onset of industrialization and global warming, and the unprecedented amplitude argues for a human role.