Epidemic arboviral diseases: priorities for research and public health

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Abstract

For decades, arboviral diseases were considered to be only minor contributors to global mortality and disability. As a result, low priority was given to arbovirus research investment and related public health infrastructure. The past five decades, however, have seen an unprecedented emergence of epidemic arboviral diseases (notably dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Zika virus disease) resulting from the triad of the modern world: urbanisation, globalisation, and international mobility. The public health emergency of Zika virus, and the threat of global spread of yellow fever, combined with the resurgence of dengue and chikungunya, constitute a wake-up call for governments, academia, funders, and WHO to strengthen programmes and enhance research in aedes-transmitted diseases. The common features of these diseases should stimulate similar research themes for diagnostics, vaccines, biological targets and immune responses, environmental determinants, and vector control measures. Combining interventions known to be effective against multiple arboviral diseases will offer the most cost-effective and sustainable strategy for disease reduction. New global alliances are needed to enable the combination of efforts and resources for more effective and timely solutions.

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The global distribution and burden of dengue

Samir Bhatt, Peter W. Gething, Oliver J Brady … (2013)

Dengue is a systemic viral infection transmitted between humans by Aedes mosquitoes 1 . For some patients dengue is a life-threatening illness 2 . There are currently no licensed vaccines or specific therapeutics, and substantial vector control efforts have not stopped its rapid emergence and global spread 3 . The contemporary worldwide distribution of the risk of dengue virus infection 4 and its public health burden are poorly known 2,5 . Here we undertake an exhaustive assembly of known records of dengue occurrence worldwide, and use a formal modelling framework to map the global distribution of dengue risk. We then pair the resulting risk map with detailed longitudinal information from dengue cohort studies and population surfaces to infer the public health burden of dengue in 2010. We predict dengue to be ubiquitous throughout the tropics, with local spatial variations in risk influenced strongly by rainfall, temperature and the degree of urbanisation. Using cartographic approaches, we estimate there to be 390 million (95 percent credible interval 284-528) dengue infections per year, of which 96 million (67-136) manifest apparently (any level of clinical or sub-clinical severity). This infection total is more than three times the dengue burden estimate of the World Health Organization 2 . Stratification of our estimates by country allows comparison with national dengue reporting, after taking into account the probability of an apparent infection being formally reported. The most notable differences are discussed. These new risk maps and infection estimates provide novel insights into the global, regional and national public health burden imposed by dengue. We anticipate that they will provide a starting point for a wider discussion about the global impact of this disease and will help guide improvements in disease control strategies using vaccine, drug and vector control methods and in their economic evaluation. [285]

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Dengue, Urbanization and Globalization: The Unholy Trinity of the 21st Century

Duane J. Gubler (2011)

Dengue is the most important arboviral disease of humans with over half of the world’s population living in areas of risk. The frequency and magnitude of epidemic dengue have increased dramatically in the past 40 years as the viruses and the mosquito vectors have both expanded geographically in the tropical regions of the world. There are many factors that have contributed to this emergence of epidemic dengue, but only three have been the principal drivers: 1) urbanization, 2) globalization and 3) lack of effective mosquito control. The dengue viruses have fully adapted to a human-Aedes aegypti-human transmission cycle, in the large urban centers of the tropics, where crowded human populations live in intimate association with equally large mosquito populations. This setting provides the ideal home for maintenance of the viruses and the periodic generation of epidemic strains. These cities all have modern airports through which 10s of millions of passengers pass each year, providing the ideal mechanism for transportation of viruses to new cities, regions and continents where there is little or no effective mosquito control. The result is epidemic dengue. This paper discusses this unholy trinity of drivers, along with disease burden, prevention and control and prospects for the future.

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The global distribution of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus

Moritz Ug Kraemer, Marianne Sinka, Kirsten A. Duda … (2015)

Dengue and chikungunya are increasing global public health concerns due to their rapid geographical spread and increasing disease burden. Knowledge of the contemporary distribution of their shared vectors, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus remains incomplete and is complicated by an ongoing range expansion fuelled by increased global trade and travel. Mapping the global distribution of these vectors and the geographical determinants of their ranges is essential for public health planning. Here we compile the largest contemporary database for both species and pair it with relevant environmental variables predicting their global distribution. We show Aedes distributions to be the widest ever recorded; now extensive in all continents, including North America and Europe. These maps will help define the spatial limits of current autochthonous transmission of dengue and chikungunya viruses. It is only with this kind of rigorous entomological baseline that we can hope to project future health impacts of these viruses. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.08347.001