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      Reduced trolling on Russian holidays and daily US Presidential election odds

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          Abstract

          Russian trolls generally supported the Trump campaign and were particularly active on Twitter 2015-2017. We find that trolling fell 35% on Russian holidays and to a lesser extent, when temperatures were cold in St. Petersburg. Exogenous variation in trolling by day allows us to consider indirectly-affected political behaviors in the US—outcomes that are less traceable via tweet sharing but potentially more important to policymakers than the direct dissemination previously studied. As a case in point, we describe reduced form evidence that Russian holidays affected daily trading prices in 2016 election betting markets. This response is consistent with successful Russian interference in support of Trump.

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          Is All That Talk Just Noise? The Information Content of Internet Stock Message Boards

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            Temporal patterns of happiness and information in a global social network: Hedonometrics and Twitter

            , , (2011)
            Individual happiness is a fundamental societal metric. Normally measured through self-report, happiness has often been indirectly characterized and overshadowed by more readily quantifiable economic indicators such as gross domestic product. Here, we examine expressions made on the online, global microblog and social networking service Twitter, uncovering and explaining temporal variations in happiness and information levels over timescales ranging from hours to years. Our data set comprises over 46 billion words contained in nearly 4.6 billion expressions posted over a 33 month span by over 63 million unique users. In measuring happiness, we use a real-time, remote-sensing, non-invasive, text-based approach---a kind of hedonometer. In building our metric, made available with this paper, we conducted a survey to obtain happiness evaluations of over 10,000 individual words, representing a tenfold size improvement over similar existing word sets. Rather than being ad hoc, our word list is chosen solely by frequency of usage and we show how a highly robust metric can be constructed and defended.
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              Political Effects of the Internet and Social Media

              How do the Internet and social media affect political outcomes? We review empirical evidence from the recent political economy literature, focusing primarily on work that considers traits that distinguish the Internet and social media from traditional off-line media, such as low barriers to entry and reliance on user-generated content. We discuss the main results about the effects of the Internet in general, and social media in particular, on voting, street protests, attitudes toward government, political polarization, xenophobia, and politicians’ behavior. We also review evidence on the role of social media in the dissemination of fake news, and we summarize results about the strategies employed by autocratic regimes to censor the Internet and to use social media for surveillance and propaganda. We conclude by highlighting open questions about how the Internet and social media shape politics in democracies and autocracies.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: Formal analysisRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: SupervisionRole: ValidationRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: Formal analysisRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: SupervisionRole: ValidationRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: InvestigationRole: Methodology
                Role: Editor
                Journal
                PLoS One
                PLoS One
                plos
                PLoS ONE
                Public Library of Science (San Francisco, CA USA )
                1932-6203
                2022
                30 March 2022
                : 17
                : 3
                : e0264507
                Affiliations
                [1 ] Columbia University, New York, NY, United States of America
                [2 ] National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA, United States of America
                University of Oxford, UNITED KINGDOM
                Author notes

                Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

                Author information
                https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1377-1982
                https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6427-5810
                Article
                PONE-D-21-12691
                10.1371/journal.pone.0264507
                8966999
                35353827
                85abe9b3-c994-490d-8512-16edcd98ae3d
                © 2022 Almond et al

                This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

                History
                : 16 April 2021
                : 12 February 2022
                Page count
                Figures: 3, Tables: 2, Pages: 19
                Funding
                This work was entirely funded by hard-money positions at Columbia University. They include a hard-money faculty position, a funded PhD student, and a funded masters student.
                Categories
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                Social Sciences
                Sociology
                Communications
                Social Communication
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                Network Analysis
                Social Networks
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                Twitter
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                Custom metadata
                The Russian holiday information are publicly available. The weather data are available here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/search/data-search/global-summary-of-the-day Twitter itself disclosed the tweets it thought were surreptitiously Russian, e.g. see here: https://blog.twitter.com/en_us/topics/company/2017/Update-Russian-Interference-in-2016--Election-Bots-and-Misinformation.html The only restricted data are those on daily presidential odds. Historical betting data from Betfair and PredictIT are available upon purchase. Pricing and contacts are available from their websites: https://historicdata.betfair.com/#/home https://www.predictit.org/research The authors didn’t receive any special privileges in accessing the data from either source. Additionally, the cleaned datasets and replication codes have been uploaded on openicpsr-150542: https://www.openicpsr.org/openicpsr/project/150542/version/V1/view.

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