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      Estimating transient rates from cosmological simulations and BPASS

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          ABSTRACT

          The detection rate of electromagnetic (EM) and gravitational wave (GW) transients is growing exponentially. As the accuracy of the transient rates will significantly improve over the coming decades, so will our understanding of their evolution through cosmic history. To this end, we present predicted rates for EM and GW transients over the age of the universe using Binary Population and Spectral Synthesis (bpass) results combined with four cosmic star formation histories (SFHs). These include a widely used empirical SFH of Madau & Dickinson and those from three cosmological simulations: MilliMillennium, EAGLE, and IllustrisTNG. We find that the choice of SFH changes our predictions: transients with short delay times are most affected by the star formation rate and change up to a factor of 2, while long delay time events tend to depend on the metallicity evolution of star formation and can change the predicted rate up to an order of magnitude. Importantly, we find that the cosmological simulations have very different metallicity evolution that cannot be reproduced by the widely used metallicity model of Langer & Norman, which impacts the binary black hole merger, stripped-envelope supernovae, and LGRBs in the local Universe most acutely. We recommend against using simple prescriptions for the metallicity evolution of the universe when predicting the rates of events that can have long delay times and that are sensitive to metallicity evolution.

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          Matplotlib: A 2D Graphics Environment

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            Array programming with NumPy

            Array programming provides a powerful, compact and expressive syntax for accessing, manipulating and operating on data in vectors, matrices and higher-dimensional arrays. NumPy is the primary array programming library for the Python language. It has an essential role in research analysis pipelines in fields as diverse as physics, chemistry, astronomy, geoscience, biology, psychology, materials science, engineering, finance and economics. For example, in astronomy, NumPy was an important part of the software stack used in the discovery of gravitational waves 1 and in the first imaging of a black hole 2 . Here we review how a few fundamental array concepts lead to a simple and powerful programming paradigm for organizing, exploring and analysing scientific data. NumPy is the foundation upon which the scientific Python ecosystem is constructed. It is so pervasive that several projects, targeting audiences with specialized needs, have developed their own NumPy-like interfaces and array objects. Owing to its central position in the ecosystem, NumPy increasingly acts as an interoperability layer between such array computation libraries and, together with its application programming interface (API), provides a flexible framework to support the next decade of scientific and industrial analysis.
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              Planck 2018 results: VI. Cosmological parameters

              We present cosmological parameter results from the final full-mission Planck measurements of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies, combining information from the temperature and polarization maps and the lensing reconstruction. Compared to the 2015 results, improved measurements of large-scale polarization allow the reionization optical depth to be measured with higher precision, leading to significant gains in the precision of other correlated parameters. Improved modelling of the small-scale polarization leads to more robust constraints on many parameters, with residual modelling uncertainties estimated to affect them only at the 0.5 σ level. We find good consistency with the standard spatially-flat 6-parameter ΛCDM cosmology having a power-law spectrum of adiabatic scalar perturbations (denoted “base ΛCDM” in this paper), from polarization, temperature, and lensing, separately and in combination. A combined analysis gives dark matter density Ω c h 2 = 0.120 ± 0.001, baryon density Ω b h 2 = 0.0224 ± 0.0001, scalar spectral index n s = 0.965 ± 0.004, and optical depth τ = 0.054 ± 0.007 (in this abstract we quote 68% confidence regions on measured parameters and 95% on upper limits). The angular acoustic scale is measured to 0.03% precision, with 100 θ * = 1.0411 ± 0.0003. These results are only weakly dependent on the cosmological model and remain stable, with somewhat increased errors, in many commonly considered extensions. Assuming the base-ΛCDM cosmology, the inferred (model-dependent) late-Universe parameters are: Hubble constant H 0 = (67.4 ± 0.5) km s −1 Mpc −1 ; matter density parameter Ω m = 0.315 ± 0.007; and matter fluctuation amplitude σ 8 = 0.811 ± 0.006. We find no compelling evidence for extensions to the base-ΛCDM model. Combining with baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements (and considering single-parameter extensions) we constrain the effective extra relativistic degrees of freedom to be N eff = 2.99 ± 0.17, in agreement with the Standard Model prediction N eff = 3.046, and find that the neutrino mass is tightly constrained to ∑ m ν < 0.12 eV. The CMB spectra continue to prefer higher lensing amplitudes than predicted in base ΛCDM at over 2 σ , which pulls some parameters that affect the lensing amplitude away from the ΛCDM model; however, this is not supported by the lensing reconstruction or (in models that also change the background geometry) BAO data. The joint constraint with BAO measurements on spatial curvature is consistent with a flat universe, Ω K = 0.001 ± 0.002. Also combining with Type Ia supernovae (SNe), the dark-energy equation of state parameter is measured to be w 0 = −1.03 ± 0.03, consistent with a cosmological constant. We find no evidence for deviations from a purely power-law primordial spectrum, and combining with data from BAO, BICEP2, and Keck Array data, we place a limit on the tensor-to-scalar ratio r 0.002 < 0.06. Standard big-bang nucleosynthesis predictions for the helium and deuterium abundances for the base-ΛCDM cosmology are in excellent agreement with observations. The Planck base-ΛCDM results are in good agreement with BAO, SNe, and some galaxy lensing observations, but in slight tension with the Dark Energy Survey’s combined-probe results including galaxy clustering (which prefers lower fluctuation amplitudes or matter density parameters), and in significant, 3.6 σ , tension with local measurements of the Hubble constant (which prefer a higher value). Simple model extensions that can partially resolve these tensions are not favoured by the Planck data.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Journal
                Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society
                Oxford University Press (OUP)
                0035-8711
                1365-2966
                July 27 2022
                June 10 2022
                July 27 2022
                June 10 2022
                April 30 2022
                : 514
                : 1
                : 1315-1334
                Article
                10.1093/mnras/stac1100
                8517e2cf-63ac-4143-af29-fced31bee7f9
                © 2022

                https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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