The combined effect of alcohol and body mass index on risk of chronic liver disease: A systematic review and meta‐analysis of cohort studies

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a major cause of liver disease worldwide. We estimated the global prevalence, incidence, progression, and outcomes of NAFLD and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). PubMed/MEDLINE were searched from 1989 to 2015 for terms involving epidemiology and progression of NAFLD. Exclusions included selected groups (studies that exclusively enrolled morbidly obese or diabetics or pediatric) and no data on alcohol consumption or other liver diseases. Incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), cirrhosis, overall mortality, and liver-related mortality were determined. NASH required histological diagnosis. All studies were reviewed by three independent investigators. Analysis was stratified by region, diagnostic technique, biopsy indication, and study population. We used random-effects models to provide point estimates (95% confidence interval [CI]) of prevalence, incidence, mortality and incidence rate ratios, and metaregression with subgroup analysis to account for heterogeneity. Of 729 studies, 86 were included with a sample size of 8,515,431 from 22 countries. Global prevalence of NAFLD is 25.24% (95% CI: 22.10-28.65) with highest prevalence in the Middle East and South America and lowest in Africa. Metabolic comorbidities associated with NAFLD included obesity (51.34%; 95% CI: 41.38-61.20), type 2 diabetes (22.51%; 95% CI: 17.92-27.89), hyperlipidemia (69.16%; 95% CI: 49.91-83.46%), hypertension (39.34%; 95% CI: 33.15-45.88), and metabolic syndrome (42.54%; 95% CI: 30.06-56.05). Fibrosis progression proportion, and mean annual rate of progression in NASH were 40.76% (95% CI: 34.69-47.13) and 0.09 (95% CI: 0.06-0.12). HCC incidence among NAFLD patients was 0.44 per 1,000 person-years (range, 0.29-0.66). Liver-specific mortality and overall mortality among NAFLD and NASH were 0.77 per 1,000 (range, 0.33-1.77) and 11.77 per 1,000 person-years (range, 7.10-19.53) and 15.44 per 1,000 (range, 11.72-20.34) and 25.56 per 1,000 person-years (range, 6.29-103.80). Incidence risk ratios for liver-specific and overall mortality for NAFLD were 1.94 (range, 1.28-2.92) and 1.05 (range, 0.70-1.56). Show more

The exclusion of other chronic liver diseases including "excess" alcohol intake has until now been necessary to establish a diagnosis of metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD). However, given our current understanding of the pathogenesis of MAFLD and its rising prevalence, "positive criteria" to diagnose the disease are required. In this work, a panel of international experts from 22 countries propose a new definition for the diagnosis of MAFLD that is both comprehensive and simple, and is independent of other liver diseases. The criteria are based on evidence of hepatic steatosis, in addition to one of the following three criteria, namely overweight/obesity, presence of type 2 diabetes mellitus, or evidence of metabolic dysregulation. We propose that disease assessment and stratification of severity should extend beyond a simple dichotomous classification to steatohepatitis vs. non-steatohepatitis. The group also suggests a set of criteria to define MAFLD-associated cirrhosis and proposes a conceptual framework to consider other causes of fatty liver disease. Finally, we bring clarity to the distinction between diagnostic criteria and inclusion criteria for research studies and clinical trials. Reaching consensus on the criteria for MAFLD will help unify the terminology (e.g. for ICD-coding), enhance the legitimacy of clinical practice and clinical trials, improve clinical care and move the clinical and scientific field of liver research forward. Show more