Association of predicted fat mass and lean body mass with diabetes: a longitudinal cohort study in an Asian population

Since the year 2000, IDF has been measuring the prevalence of diabetes nationally, regionally and globally.

Globally, the number of people with diabetes mellitus has quadrupled in the past three decades, and diabetes mellitus is the ninth major cause of death. About 1 in 11 adults worldwide now have diabetes mellitus, 90% of whom have type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Asia is a major area of the rapidly emerging T2DM global epidemic, with China and India the top two epicentres. Although genetic predisposition partly determines individual susceptibility to T2DM, an unhealthy diet and a sedentary lifestyle are important drivers of the current global epidemic; early developmental factors (such as intrauterine exposures) also have a role in susceptibility to T2DM later in life. Many cases of T2DM could be prevented with lifestyle changes, including maintaining a healthy body weight, consuming a healthy diet, staying physically active, not smoking and drinking alcohol in moderation. Most patients with T2DM have at least one complication, and cardiovascular complications are the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in these patients. This Review provides an updated view of the global epidemiology of T2DM, as well as dietary, lifestyle and other risk factors for T2DM and its complications.

Sensitivity analysis is useful in assessing how robust an association is to potential unmeasured or uncontrolled confounding. This article introduces a new measure called the "E-value," which is related to the evidence for causality in observational studies that are potentially subject to confounding. The E-value is defined as the minimum strength of association, on the risk ratio scale, that an unmeasured confounder would need to have with both the treatment and the outcome to fully explain away a specific treatment-outcome association, conditional on the measured covariates. A large E-value implies that considerable unmeasured confounding would be needed to explain away an effect estimate. A small E-value implies little unmeasured confounding would be needed to explain away an effect estimate. The authors propose that in all observational studies intended to produce evidence for causality, the E-value be reported or some other sensitivity analysis be used. They suggest calculating the E-value for both the observed association estimate (after adjustments for measured confounders) and the limit of the confidence interval closest to the null. If this were to become standard practice, the ability of the scientific community to assess evidence from observational studies would improve considerably, and ultimately, science would be strengthened.