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      The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity in Flowing Freshwater Systems

      1 , 2
      Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics
      Annual Reviews

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          Abstract

          Ongoing increases in air temperature and changing precipitation patterns are altering water temperatures and flow regimes in lotic freshwater systems, and these changes are expected to continue in the coming century. Freshwater taxa are responding to these changes at all levels of biological organization. The generation of appropriate hydrologic and water temperature projections is critical to accurately predict the impacts of climate change on freshwater systems in the coming decade. The goal of this review is to provide an overview of how changes in climate affect hydrologic processes and how climate-induced changes in freshwater habitat can impact the life histories and traits of individuals, and the distributions of freshwater populations and biodiversity. Projections of biological responses during the coming century will depend on accurately representing the spatially varying sensitivity of physical systems to changes in climate, as well as acknowledging the spatially varying sensitivity of freshwater taxa to changes in environmental conditions.

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          Most cited references117

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          Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change

          Ecological changes in the phenology and distribution of plants and animals are occurring in all well-studied marine, freshwater, and terrestrial groups. These observed changes are heavily biased in the directions predicted from global warming and have been linked to local or regional climate change through correlations between climate and biological variation, field and laboratory experiments, and physiological research. Range-restricted species, particularly polar and mountaintop species, show severe range contractions and have been the first groups in which entire species have gone extinct due to recent climate change. Tropical coral reefs and amphibians have been most negatively affected. Predator-prey and plant-insect interactions have been disrupted when interacting species have responded differently to warming. Evolutionary adaptations to warmer conditions have occurred in the interiors of species' ranges, and resource use and dispersal have evolved rapidly at expanding range margins. Observed genetic shifts modulate local effects of climate change, but there is little evidence that they will mitigate negative effects at the species level.
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            The Natural Flow Regime

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              Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle.

              What can we say about changes in the hydrologic cycle on 50-year timescales when we cannot predict rainfall next week? Eventually, perhaps, a great deal: the overall climate response to increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases may prove much simpler and more predictable than the chaos of short-term weather. Quantifying the diversity of possible responses is essential for any objective, probability-based climate forecast, and this task will require a new generation of climate modelling experiments, systematically exploring the range of model behaviour that is consistent with observations. It will be substantially harder to quantify the range of possible changes in the hydrologic cycle than in global-mean temperature, both because the observations are less complete and because the physical constraints are weaker.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics
                Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst.
                Annual Reviews
                1543-592X
                1545-2069
                November 02 2017
                November 02 2017
                : 48
                : 1
                : 111-133
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Department of Biology, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, Missouri 63103;
                [2 ]Department of Geography, Indiana University, Bloomington, Indiana 47405
                Article
                10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-110316-022803
                83121534-b0b1-4feb-80ad-7a3881582f1e
                © 2017
                History

                Earth & Environmental sciences,Environmental economics & Politics,Environmental change,Environmental studies,Environmental management, Policy & Planning,General environmental science

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