To increase knowledge about recent trends in the number and incidence of various low-trauma
injuries among elderly people, we selected, from the National Hospital Discharge Register,
all patients > or =60 years of age who were admitted to hospitals in Finland (5 million
population) for primary treatment of a first low-trauma ankle fracture during 1970-2000.
In each year of the study, the age-adjusted and age-specific incidence of fracture
was expressed as the number of patients per 100,000 persons. The predicted numbers
and incidence rates of fractures until the year 2030 were calculated using a regression
model. For the study period, the number and incidence of low-trauma ankle fractures
in Finnish persons > or =60 years of age rose substantially: the total number of fractures
increased from 369 in 1970 to 1545 in 2000, a 319% increase, and the crude incidence
increased from 57 to 150, a 163% increase. The age-adjusted incidence of these fractures
also rose in both women (from 66 in 1970 to 174 in 2000, a 164% increase) and men
(from 38 in 1970 to 114 in 2000, a 200% increase). The regression model indicates
that, if this trend continues, there will be about three times more low-trauma ankle
fractures in Finland in the year 2030 than there was in 2000. In conclusion, the number
of low-trauma ankle fractures in elderly Finns is rising rapidly at a rate that cannot
be explained simply by demographic changes and, therefore, potentially effective preventive
measures, such as prevention of slippings, trippings, and falls in elderly people,
and use of ankle supports, should be urgently studied.
Copyright 2002 Elsevier Science Inc.