A measurement-based upstream oil and gas methane inventory for Alberta, Canada reveals higher emissions and different sources than official estimates

Abstract

Mitigation actions and regulations to meet critical 2030 methane reduction targets under the Global Methane Pledge are hampered by uncertainty in true levels of emissions and source breakdowns. Here we present a measurement-based, source-resolved, hybrid top-down/bottom-up methane inventory for conventional upstream oil and gas operations in Canada’s largest oil and gas-producing province, Alberta. The derived 2021 inventory of 1337 kt/y is approximately 1.5× the official federal inventory and matches independent top-down aerial mass-balance and satellite estimates within uncertainties. Major sources are starkly different from official estimates, with venting (e.g., uncontrolled tanks, pneumatics, unlit flares) comprising almost two-thirds of emissions implying important mitigation opportunities. Derived methane intensities, while similar to U.S. basins, are approximately 4× those in neighbouring British Columbia and further reveal order-of-magnitude differences among individual anonymized companies at directly comparable facility types. This highlights the importance of independent monitoring, reporting, and verification to ensure collective success in reducing emissions.