Long-term decrease in Asian monsoon rainfall and abrupt climate change events over the past 6,700 years

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Significance

The variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) is important for the functioning of ecological and societal systems at regional to continental scales, but the long-term evolution and interannual variability of this system is not well understood. Here, we present a stable isotope–based reconstruction of ASM variability covering 4680 BCE to 2011 CE. Superimposed on a gradual drying trend, a rapid drop in mean annual precipitation (>40%) toward persistently drier conditions occurred in ∼1675 BCE. This megadrought caused regional forest deterioration and enhanced aeolian activity affecting Chinese ecosystems. We argue that this abrupt aridification starting ∼2000 BCE triggered waves of human migration and societal transformation in northern China, which contributed to the alteration of spatial pattern of ancient civilizations.

Abstract

Asian summer monsoon (ASM) variability and its long-term ecological and societal impacts extending back to Neolithic times are poorly understood due to a lack of high-resolution climate proxy data. Here, we present a precisely dated and well-calibrated tree-ring stable isotope chronology from the Tibetan Plateau with 1- to 5-y resolution that reflects high- to low-frequency ASM variability from 4680 BCE to 2011 CE. Superimposed on a persistent drying trend since the mid-Holocene, a rapid decrease in moisture availability between ∼2000 and ∼1500 BCE caused a dry hydroclimatic regime from ∼1675 to ∼1185 BCE, with mean precipitation estimated at 42 ± 4% and 5 ± 2% lower than during the mid-Holocene and the instrumental period, respectively. This second-millennium–BCE megadrought marks the mid-to late Holocene transition, during which regional forests declined and enhanced aeolian activity affected northern Chinese ecosystems. We argue that this abrupt aridification starting ∼2000 BCE contributed to the shift of Neolithic cultures in northern China and likely triggered human migration and societal transformation.

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Titanium and iron concentration data from the anoxic Cariaco Basin, off the Venezuelan coast, can be used to infer variations in the hydrological cycle over northern South America during the past 14,000 years with subdecadal resolution. Following a dry Younger Dryas, a period of increased precipitation and riverine discharge occurred during the Holocene "thermal maximum." Since approximately 5400 years ago, a trend toward drier conditions is evident from the data, with high-amplitude fluctuations and precipitation minima during the time interval 3800 to 2800 years ago and during the "Little Ice Age." These regional changes in precipitation are best explained by shifts in the mean latitude of the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), potentially driven by Pacific-based climate variability. The Cariaco Basin record exhibits strong correlations with climate records from distant regions, including the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere, providing evidence for global teleconnections among regional climates.

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Nils Stenseth, Atle Mysterud, Geir Ottersen … (2002)

Climate influences a variety of ecological processes. These effects operate through local weather parameters such as temperature, wind, rain, snow, and ocean currents, as well as interactions among these. In the temperate zone, local variations in weather are often coupled over large geographic areas through the transient behavior of atmospheric planetary-scale waves. These variations drive temporally and spatially averaged exchanges of heat, momentum, and water vapor that ultimately determine growth, recruitment, and migration patterns. Recently, there have been several studies of the impact of large-scale climatic forcing on ecological systems. We review how two of the best-known climate phenomena-the North Atlantic Oscillation and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation-affect ecological patterns and processes in both marine and terrestrial systems.

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Author and article information

Journal

Journal ID (nlm-ta): Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A

Journal ID (iso-abbrev): Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A

Journal ID (hwp): pnas

Journal ID (publisher-id): PNAS

Title: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Publisher: National Academy of Sciences

ISSN (Print): 0027-8424

ISSN (Electronic): 1091-6490

Publication date (Print): 27 July 2021

Publication date (Electronic): 19 July 2021

Publication date PMC-release: 19 July 2021

Volume: 118

Issue: 30

Electronic Location Identifier: e2102007118

Affiliations

[1] ^aKey Laboratory of Desert and Desertification, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Lanzhou 730000, China;

[2] ^bChinese Academy of Sciences Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100101, China;

[3] ^cInstitute of Geography, Friedrich-Alexander-University Erlangen-Nürnberg , 91058 Erlangen, Germany;

[4] ^dClimatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia , Norwich NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom;

[5] ^eLaboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona , Tucson, AZ 85721;

[6] ^fDepartment of History, Stockholm University , 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden;

[7] ^gBolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University , 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden;

[8] ^hSwedish Collegium for Advanced Study , 752 38 Uppsala, Sweden;

[9] ⁱDepartment of Geography, Johannes Gutenberg University , 55099 Mainz, Germany;

[10] ^jGlobal Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences (CzechGlobe) , 603 00 Brno, Czech Republic;

[11] ^kDepartment of Geography, Justus-Liebig-University , D-35390 Giessen, Germany;

[12] ^lDepartment of Geography, University of Cambridge , CB2 3EN Cambridge, United Kingdom;

[13] ^mDendrosciences Group, Swiss Federal Research Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland;

[14] ⁿCzech Globe Global Change Research Institute, Czech Academy of Sciences , 60300 Brno, Czech Republic;

[15] ^oDepartment of Geography, Faculty of Science, Masaryk University , 61137 Brno, Czech Republic;

[16] ^pDépartement des Sciences Fondamentales, Université du Québec à Chicoutimi , Chicoutimi, QC G7H 2B1, Canada;

[17] ^qKey Laboratory of Vegetation Restoration and Management of Degraded Ecosystems, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Applied Botany, South China Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Guangzhou 510650, China;

[18] ^rCollege of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University , Lanzhou 730000, China;

[19] ^sKey Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment of Ministry of Education, School of Geography Science, Nanjing Normal University , Nanjing 210023, China;

[20] ^tState Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Nanjing 210008, China;

[21] ^uScience and Innovation Department, World Meteorological Organization , CH-1211 Geneva, Switzerland;

[22] ^vTree Ring Laboratory, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University , Palisades, NY 10964;

[23] ^wCentre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo , N-0316 Oslo, Norway

Author notes

¹To whom correspondence may be addressed. Email: n.c.stenseth@ 123456mn.uio.no or yangbao@ 123456lzb.ac.cn .

Edited by Neil J. Loader, Swansea University, United Kingdom, and accepted by Editorial Board Member Carl Folke May 27, 2021 (received for review February 2, 2021)

Author contributions: B.Y. designed research; B.Y. and N.C.S. performed research; B.Y., C.Q., S.R., G.D., M.Y., L.N., J.W., X.W., and N.C.S. analyzed data; B.Y., C.Q., A.B., T.J.O., V.T., F.C.L., J.E., L.S., J.G., U.B., S.W., J.L., E.R.C., and N.C.S. wrote the paper.