The impact of flooding on food security across Africa

Significance

Floods impact food security for ∼12% of our modeled African population that experienced food insecurity during our study period. Flood impacts on food security vary depending on scale, with declines likely at smaller scales but mixed impacts at national and regional scales. Improved data collection at the intersection of flooding and food security, and at the spatial scales ranging beyond conventional humanitarian responses, is critical to better mitigate food security impacts of flood disasters across Africa and globally.

Abstract

Recent record rainfall and flood events have prompted increased attention to flood impacts on human systems. Information regarding flood effects on food security is of particular importance for humanitarian organizations and is especially valuable across Africa's rural areas that contribute to regional food supplies. We quantitatively evaluate where and to what extent flooding impacts food security across Africa, using a Granger causality analysis and panel modeling approaches. Within our modeled areas, we find that ∼12% of the people that experienced food insecurity from 2009 to 2020 had their food security status affected by flooding. Furthermore, flooding and its associated meteorological conditions can simultaneously degrade food security locally while enhancing it at regional spatial scales, leading to large variations in overall food security outcomes. Dedicated data collection at the intersection of flood events and associated food security measures across different spatial and temporal scales are required to better characterize the extent of flood impact and inform preparedness, response, and recovery needs.