FIB-4 Index and Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte-Ratio as Death Predictor in Coronary Artery Disease Patients

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Abstract

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)-associated liver fibrosis is likely related to coronary artery disease (CAD) by the mediation of systemic inflammation. This study aimed at evaluating the predictive value of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte-ratio (NLR) and fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4), indices of inflammation and fibrosis, respectively, on CAD mortality. Data from 1460 CAD patients (1151 males, age: 68 ± 10 years, mean ± SD) were retrospectively analyzed. Over a median follow-up of 26 months (interquartile range (IQR) 12–45), 94 deaths were recorded. Kaplan–Meier survival analysis revealed worse outcomes in patients with elevation of one or both biomarkers (FIB-4 > 3.25 or/and NLR > 2.04, log-rank p-value < 0.001). In multivariate Cox regression analysis, the elevation of one biomarker (NLR or FIB-4) still confers a significant independent risk for mortality (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.7, 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.1–2.7, p = 0.023), whereas an increase in both biomarkers confers a risk corresponding to HR = 3.5 (95% CI: 1.6–7.8, p = 0.002). Categorization of patients with elevated FIB-4/NLR could provide valuable information for risk stratification and reduction of residual risk in CAD patients.

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Development of a simple noninvasive index to predict significant fibrosis in patients with HIV/HCV coinfection.

Richard Sterling, Eduardo Lissen, Nathan Clumeck … (2006)

Liver biopsy remains the gold standard in the assessment of severity of liver disease. Noninvasive tests have gained popularity to predict histology in view of the associated risks of biopsy. However, many models include tests not readily available, and there are limited data from patients with HIV/hepatitis C virus (HCV) coinfection. We aimed to develop a model using routine tests to predict liver fibrosis in patients with HIV/HCV coinfection. A retrospective analysis of liver histology was performed in 832 patients. Liver fibrosis was assessed via Ishak score; patients were categorized as 0-1, 2-3, or 4-6 and were randomly assigned to training (n = 555) or validation (n = 277) sets. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that platelet count (PLT), age, AST, and INR were significantly associated with fibrosis. Additional analysis revealed PLT, age, AST, and ALT as an alternative model. Based on this, a simple index (FIB-4) was developed: age ([yr] x AST [U/L]) / ((PLT [10(9)/L]) x (ALT [U/L])(1/2)). The AUROC of the index was 0.765 for differentiation between Ishak stage 0-3 and 4-6. At a cutoff of 3.25 had a positive predictive value of 65% and a specificity of 97%. Using these cutoffs, 87% of the 198 patients with FIB-4 values outside 1.45-3.25 would be correctly classified, and liver biopsy could be avoided in 71% of the validation group. In conclusion, noninvasive tests can accurately predict hepatic fibrosis and may reduce the need for liver biopsy in the majority of HIV/HCV-coinfected patients.