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      Contributions of individual countries’ emissions to climate change and their uncertainty

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          External Control of 20th Century Temperature by Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings

          P. A. Stott, S. F. B. Tett, G S Jones … (2000)
          Article 0 comments Cited 194 times – based on 0 reviews     Review now
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            Alternatives to the Global Warming Potential for Comparing Climate Impacts of Emissions of Greenhouse Gases

            Keith Shine, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, Kinfe Hailemariam … (2005)
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              Interpretation of high projections for global-mean warming.

              S Raper, T Wigley (2001)
              The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has recently released its Third Assessment Report (TAR), in which new projections are given for global-mean warming in the absence of policies to limit climate change. The full warming range over 1990 to 2100, 1.4 degrees to 5.8 degrees C, is substantially higher than the range given previously in the IPCC Second Assessment Report. Here we interpret the new warming range in probabilistic terms, accounting for uncertainties in emissions, the climate sensitivity, the carbon cycle, ocean mixing, and aerosol forcing. We show that the probabilities of warming values at both the high and low ends of the TAR range are very low. In the absence of climate-mitigation policies, the 90% probability interval for 1990 to 2100 warming is 1.7 degrees to 4.9 degrees C.
              Article 0 comments Cited 154 times – based on 0 reviews     Review now
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Title: Climatic Change
                Abbreviated Title: Climatic Change
                Publisher: Springer Nature
                ISSN (Print): 0165-0009
                ISSN (Electronic): 1573-1480
                Publication date Created: June 2011
                Publication date (Print): September 2010
                Volume: 106
                Issue: 3
                Pages: 359-391
                Article
                DOI: 10.1007/s10584-010-9930-6
                SO-VID: 783dfab8-4146-469f-82e0-e89de3acc525
                Copyright © © 2011
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