Teenage births and pregnancies in South Africa, 2017 - 2021 - a reflection of a troubled country: Analysis of public sector data

Background Substantial reductions in adult mortality have been observed in South Africa since the mid-2000s, but there has been no formal evaluation of how much of this decline is attributable to the scale-up of antiretroviral treatment (ART), as previous models have not been calibrated to vital registration data. We developed a deterministic mathematical model to simulate the mortality trends that would have been expected in the absence of ART, and with earlier introduction of ART. Methods and findings Model estimates of mortality rates in ART patients were obtained from the International Epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS–Southern Africa (IeDEA-SA) collaboration. The model was calibrated to HIV prevalence data (1997–2013) and mortality data from the South African vital registration system (1997–2014), using a Bayesian approach. In the 1985–2014 period, 2.70 million adult HIV-related deaths occurred in South Africa. Adult HIV deaths peaked at 231,000 per annum in 2006 and declined to 95,000 in 2014, a reduction of 74.7% (95% CI: 73.3%–76.1%) compared to the scenario without ART. However, HIV mortality in 2014 was estimated to be 69% (95% CI: 46%–97%) higher in 2014 (161,000) if the model was calibrated only to HIV prevalence data. In the 2000–2014 period, the South African ART programme is estimated to have reduced the cumulative number of HIV deaths in adults by 1.72 million (95% CI: 1.58 million–1.84 million) and to have saved 6.15 million life years in adults (95% CI: 5.52 million–6.69 million). This compares with a potential saving of 8.80 million (95% CI: 7.90 million–9.59 million) life years that might have been achieved if South Africa had moved swiftly to implement WHO guidelines (2004–2013) and had achieved high levels of ART uptake in HIV-diagnosed individuals from 2004 onwards. The model is limited by its reliance on all-cause mortality data, given the lack of reliable cause-of-death reporting, and also does not allow for changes over time in tuberculosis control programmes and ART effectiveness. Conclusions ART has had a dramatic impact on adult mortality in South Africa, but delays in the rollout of ART, especially in the early stages of the ART programme, have contributed to substantial loss of life. This is the first study to our knowledge to calibrate a model of ART impact to population-level recorded death data in Africa; models that are not calibrated to population-level death data may overestimate HIV-related mortality.

Background Sub-Saharan Africa has among the highest prevalence of teenage pregnancy in the world. Teenage mothers and their children are at risk to a host of medical, social and economic challenges. Adolescent pregnancy is a significant cost to the mother and newborn child, and also to their family and the wider society. Despite measures taken by some sub-Saharan nations to tackle the issue of adolescent pregnancy, the phenomenon remains a public health concern that is widespread throughout the region. Currently, there are few studies that examine the predictors of teenage pregnancy in the sub-Saharan region. The objective of the present study was to systematically review predictors of pregnancy among young people in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods A literature search was conducted using Medline, CINAHL and EMBASE electronic databases. Following duplicate removal, abstract and full-text screening, 15 studies were ultimately included in the final review. Narrative synthesis was used to synthesise the qualitative and quantitative findings. This review followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses. Results Twenty-seven predictors of teenage pregnancy were identified and grouped into six themes (Partner and peer-related predictors; Sexual health knowledge, attitude and behaviour-related predictors; Parenting and family-related predictors; Economic, environmental and cultural predictors; Personal predictors; and Quality of healthcare services predictors). The most obvious predictors included sexual coercion and pressure from male partners, low or incorrect use of contraceptives, and poor parenting or low parental communication and support. Conclusion This review emphasises that the large prevalence of adolescent pregnancy in sub-Saharan Africa is attributable to multiple predictors that our study was able to group into six themes. Policy changes and programmes must be implemented in sub-Saharan Africa to address these determinants in order to reduce adolescent pregnancy within the region.

To describe the prevalence of unintended pregnancy and its association with HIV status among pregnant women in South Africa. A cross-sectional survey was conducted between October and mid-November 2019 among pregnant women aged 15–49 years in 1589 selected public antenatal care facilities. Pregnancy intention was assessed using two questions from the London Measure of Unplanned Pregnancy. Survey logistic regression examined factors associated with unintended pregnancy. Among 34,946 participants, 51.6% had an unintended pregnancy. On multivariable analysis, the odds of unintended pregnancy was higher among women who knew their HIV-positive status before pregnancy but initiated treatment after the first antenatal visit (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.5 [95% confidence interval (CI):1.2–1.8]), women who initiated treatment before pregnancy (aOR, 1.3 [95% CI:1.2–1.3]), and women with a new HIV diagnosis during pregnancy (aOR, 1.2 [95% CI:1.1–1.3]) compared to HIV-negative women. Women who were single, in a non-cohabiting or a cohabiting relationship, and young women (15–24 years) had significantly higher risk of unintended pregnancy compared to married women and women aged 30–49 years, respectively. A comprehensive approach, including regular assessment of HIV clients’ pregnancy intention, and adolescent and youth-friendly reproductive health services could help prevent unintended pregnancy.