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      The impact of JUUL market entry on cigarette sales: evidence from a major chain retailer in Canada

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          Abstract

          Background

          Electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS), such as the JUUL system, are nicotine products for adults who currently smoke cigarettes but are looking for an alternative to combustible cigarettes. Sales of ENDS products were legislatively acknowledged and authorized federally in Canada with the Royal Assent of the Tobacco and Vaping Products Act in 2018.

          Methods

          With the unique dataset from a major chain retailer in Canada, we evaluated the impacts of JUUL market entry on cigarette sales across Canada from January 2017 to August 2019 using two-way fixed effects panel regression models by leveraging on the entry time variation at the city level. We conducted various robustness checks and a permutation test to validate our results.

          Results

          Our estimates suggested that JUUL market entry was, on average, significantly correlated with a 1.65% per-month decrease in cigarette sales during the initial months, and with a potentially larger impact on urban areas. Our results were robust across various specifications and tests. These findings implied that JUUL and combustible cigarettes act as economic substitutes during the study time period in Canada.

          Conclusions

          These results suggested that local availability of ENDS products, such as JUUL, has the potential to reduce local cigarette consumption.

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          Most cited references39

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          E-cigarette use and associated changes in population smoking cessation: evidence from US current population surveys

          Shu-Hong Zhu, Yue-Lin Zhuang, Shiushing Wong … (2017)
          Objective To examine whether the increase in use of electronic cigarettes in the USA, which became noticeable around 2010 and increased dramatically by 2014, was associated with a change in overall smoking cessation rate at the population level. Design Population surveys with nationally representative samples. Setting Five of the US Current Population Survey-Tobacco Use Supplement (CPS-TUS) in 2001-02, 2003, 2006-07, 2010-11, and 2014-15. Participants Data on e-cigarette use were obtained from the total sample of the 2014-15 CPS-TUS (n=161 054). Smoking cessation rates were obtained from those who reported smoking cigarettes 12 months before the survey (n=23 270). Rates from 2014-15 CPS-TUS were then compared with those from 2010-11 CPS-TUS (n=27 280) and those from three other previous surveys. Main outcome measures Rate of attempt to quit cigarette smoking and the rate of successfully quitting smoking, defined as having quit smoking for at least three months. Results Of 161 054 respondents to the 2014-15 survey, 22 548 were current smokers and 2136 recent quitters. Among them, 38.2% of current smokers and 49.3% of recent quitters had tried e-cigarettes, and 11.5% and 19.0% used them currently (every day or some days). E-cigarette users were more likely than non-users to attempt to quit smoking, 65.1% v 40.1% (change=25.0%, 95% confidence interval 23.2% to 26.9%), and more likely to succeed in quitting, 8.2% v 4.8% (3.5%, 2.5% to 4.5%). The overall population cessation rate for 2014-15 was significantly higher than that for 2010-11, 5.6% v 4.5% (1.1%, 0.6% to 1.5%), and higher than those for all other survey years (range 4.3-4.5%). Conclusion The substantial increase in e-cigarette use among US adult smokers was associated with a statistically significant increase in the smoking cessation rate at the population level. These findings need to be weighed carefully in regulatory policy making regarding e-cigarettes and in planning tobacco control interventions.
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            Prevalence of vaping and smoking among adolescents in Canada, England, and the United States: repeat national cross sectional surveys

            David Hammond, Jessica Reid, Vicki Rynard … (2019)
            Abstract Objective To examine differences in vaping and smoking prevalence among adolescents in Canada, England, and the United States. Design Repeat cross sectional surveys. Setting Online surveys in Canada, England, and the US. Participants National samples of 16 to 19 year olds in 2017 and 2018, recruited from commercial panels in Canada (n=7891), England (n=7897), and the US (n=8140). Main outcome measures Prevalence of vaping and smoking was assessed for use ever, in the past 30 days, in the past week, and on 15 days or more in the past month. Use of JUUL (a nicotine salt based electronic cigarette with high nicotine concentration) and usual vaping brands were also assessed. Logistic regression models examined differences in vaping and smoking between countries and over time. Results The prevalence of vaping in the past 30 days, in the past week, and on 15 days or more in the past month increased in Canada and the US between 2017 and 2018 (P<0.001 for all), including among non-smokers and experimental smokers, with no changes in England. Smoking prevalence increased in Canada (P<0.001 for all measures), with modest increases in England, and no changes in the US. The percentage of ever vapers who reported more frequent vaping increased in Canada and the US (P<0.01 for all), but not in England. The use of JUUL increased in all countries, particularly the US and Canada—for example, the proportion of current vapers in the US citing JUUL as their usual brand increased threefold between 2017 and 2018. Conclusions Between 2017 and 2018, among 16 to 19 year olds the prevalence of vaping increased in Canada and the US, as did smoking in Canada, with little change in England. The rapidly evolving vaping market and emergence of nicotine salt based products warrant close monitoring.
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              Examining the relationship of vaping to smoking initiation among US youth and young adults: a reality check

              David T. Levy, Kenneth Warner, K. Cummings … (2018)
              Background The 2018 National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Report found substantial evidence that electronic cigarette use (vaping) by youth is strongly associated with an increased risk of ever using cigarettes (smoking) and moderately associated with progressing to more established smoking. However, the Report also noted that recent increases in vaping have been associated with declining rates of youth smoking. This paper examines the temporal relationship between vaping and youth smoking using multiple data sets to explore the question of whether vaping promotes smoking initiation in the USA. Methods Using publicly available, nationally representative data on smoking and vaping among youth and young adults, we conducted a trend line analysis of deviations from long-term trends in smoking starting from when vaping became more prevalent. Results There was a substantial increase in youth vaping prevalence beginning in about 2014. Time trend analyses showed that the decline in past 30-day smoking prevalence accelerated by two to four times after 2014. Indicators of more established smoking rates, including the proportion of daily smokers among past 30-day smokers, also decreased more rapidly as vaping became more prevalent. Conclusions The inverse relationship between vaping and smoking was robust across different data sets for both youth and young adults and for current and more established smoking. While trying electronic cigarettes may causally increase smoking among some youth, the aggregate effect at the population level appears to be negligible given the reduction in smoking initiation during the period of vaping’s ascendance.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Tengjiao Chen: tengjiaochen@gmail.com
                Journal
                Journal ID (nlm-ta): Harm Reduct J
                Journal ID (iso-abbrev): Harm Reduct J
                Title: Harm Reduction Journal
                Publisher: BioMed Central (London )
                ISSN (Electronic): 1477-7517
                Publication date (Electronic): 9 May 2023
                Publication date PMC-release: 9 May 2023
                Publication date Collection: 2023
                Volume: 20
                Electronic Location Identifier: 65
                Affiliations
                [1 ]GRID grid.509454.9, ISNI 0000 0004 6766 8128, JUUL Labs, Inc., ; Washington, DC, USA
                [2 ]GRID grid.46078.3d, ISNI 0000 0000 8644 1405, Department of Economics, , University of Waterloo, ; Waterloo, Canada
                Article
                Publisher ID: 790
                DOI: 10.1186/s12954-023-00790-1
                PMC ID: 10170713
                PubMed ID: 37161460
                SO-VID: 76f2e767-6b42-435f-b2de-dbab9f4cc3f6
                Copyright © © The Author(s) 2023
                License:

                Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver ( http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.

                History
                Date received : 3 August 2022
                Date accepted : 28 April 2023
                Funding
                Funded by: JUUL Labs, Inc.
                Categories
                Subject: Research
                Custom metadata
                issue-copyright-statement © BioMed Central Ltd., part of Springer Nature 2023

                ScienceOpen disciplines: Health & Social care
                Keywords: electronic nicotine delivery systems,juul,market entry,cigarette and vaping product sales in canada
                Data availability:
                ScienceOpen disciplines: Health & Social care
                Keywords: electronic nicotine delivery systems, juul, market entry, cigarette and vaping product sales in canada

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