Dengue in Cape Verde: vector control and vaccination

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Abstract

In 2009, for the first time in Cape Verde, an outbreak of dengue was reported and over twenty thousand people were infected. Only a few prophylactic measures were taken. The effects of vector control on disease spreading, such as insecticide (larvicide and adulticide) and mechanical control, as well as an hypothetical vaccine, are estimated through simulations with the Cape Verde data.

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A Geometric Approach to Global-Stability Problems

James S. Muldowney, Michael Y Li (1996)

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Estimation of the reproduction number of dengue fever from spatial epidemic data.

G. Chowell, Juan Dueñas, Julio C. Castillo … (2007)

Dengue, a vector-borne disease, thrives in tropical and subtropical regions worldwide. A retrospective analysis of the 2002 dengue epidemic in Colima located on the Mexican central Pacific coast is carried out. We estimate the reproduction number from spatial epidemic data at the level of municipalities using two different methods: (1) Using a standard dengue epidemic model and assuming pure exponential initial epidemic growth and (2) Fitting a more realistic epidemic model to the initial phase of the dengue epidemic curve. Using Method I, we estimate an overall mean reproduction number of 3.09 (95% CI: 2.34,3.84) as well as local reproduction numbers whose values range from 1.24 (1.15,1.33) to 4.22 (2.90,5.54). Using Method II, the overall mean reproduction number is estimated to be 2.0 (1.75,2.23) and local reproduction numbers ranging from 0.49 (0.0,1.0) to 3.30 (1.63,4.97). Method I systematically overestimates the reproduction number relative to the refined Method II, and hence it would overestimate the intensity of interventions required for containment. Moreover, optimal intervention with defined resources demands different levels of locally tailored mitigation. Local epidemic peaks occur between the 24th and 35th week of the year, and correlate positively with the final local epidemic sizes (rho=0.92, P-value<0.001). Moreover, final local epidemic sizes are found to be linearly related to the local population size (P-value<0.001). This observation supports a roughly constant number of female mosquitoes per person across urban and rural regions.

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On a temporal model for the Chikungunya disease: modeling, theory and numerics.

C Domerg, F. Chiroleu, Y Dumont (2008)

Reunion Island faced two episodes of Chikungunya, a vector-borne disease, in 2005 and in 2006. The latter was of unprecedented magnitude: one third of the population was infected. Until the severe episode of 2006, our knowledge of Chikungunya was very limited. The principal aim of our study is to propose a model, including human and mosquito compartments, that is associated to the time course of the first epidemic of Chikungunya. By computing the basic reproduction number R(0), we show there exists a disease-free equilibrium that is locally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number is less than 1. Moreover, we give a necessary condition for global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium. Then, we propose a numerical scheme that is qualitatively stable and present several simulations as well as numerical estimates of the basic reproduction number for some cities of Reunion Island. For the episode of 2005, R(0) was less than one, which partly explains why no outbreak appeared. Using recent entomological results, we investigate links between the episode of 2005 and the outbreak of 2006. Finally, our work shows that R(0) varied from place to place on the island, indicating that quick and focused interventions, like the destruction of breeding sites, may be effective for controlling the disease.

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Publication date Created: 02 April 2012

Article

DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.831711

ArXiV ID: 1204.0544

SO-VID: 76cb01aa-0482-46c4-b09a-153287e63c10

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http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/

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ACM classes 34H05, 92D30

Journal reference Math. Popul. Stud. 20 (2013), no. 4, 208--223

Comments This is a preprint of a paper whose final and definite form will appear in Mathematical Population Studies. Paper submitted 03-Oct-2011; revised several times; accepted for publication 2-April-2012

Dengue in Cape Verde: vector control and vaccination

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Citation Behaviour and Practice

Most cited references 17

A Geometric Approach to Global-Stability Problems

Estimation of the reproduction number of dengue fever from spatial epidemic data.

On a temporal model for the Chikungunya disease: modeling, theory and numerics.

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Article

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Custom metadata

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