Association between Incidence of Chickenpox and Meteorological Factors in Hubei Province, China

Abstract

Objective: To investigate the effect of meteorological factors on the incidence of chickenpox in Hubei Province and provide a reference for the prevention and control of chickenpox in Central China.

Methods: The data were retrieved from the report cards of chickenpox patients from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Xiaogan City, Hubei Province since 2008. Clinical specimens of 6 324 chickenpox cases between January 2009 and December 2012 were collected. Meteorological data over the same period including temperature, relative humidity, precipitation and peak sunshine hours were provided by the Bureau of Meteorology, Xiaogan City. There was significant collinearity of meteorological data and the multivariate linear regression model was not satisfactory, therefore, a univariate linear regression model based on chickenpox incidence in different seasons and individual meteorological parameters was constructed to evaluate the correlation between meteorological factors and chickenpox incidence.

Results: The average annual incidence of chickenpox between 2009 and 2012 was 32.838/100 000 and there were no deaths. Peak incidence appeared in the summer and winter, showing a typical bimodal curve. The cases in summer and winter accounted for 34.69% (2 194/6 324) and 32.84% (2 077/6 324) of the total cases, respectively. There were more cases in summer than in spring and autumn (P<0.01), and more cases in winter than in spring and autumn (P<0.05). There was no significant correlation between case number and individual meteorological factors such as temperature, relative humidity, precipitation or peak sunshine hours (P>0.05). In spring and winter, temperature and sunshine hours were significantly correlated with chickenpox incidence (P<0.05); while in summer, all of the meteorological factors were significantly correlated with chickenpox incidence (P<0.05). In autumn, only sunshine hours showed a significant correlation with incidence (P<0.05).

Conclusion: The incidence of chickenpox in Hubei Province showed significant seasonal dynamic changes. Meteorological factors can explain partly the seasonal fluctuation of chickenpox incidence.