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      A novel numerical approach for time-varying impulsive fractional differential equations using theory of functional connections and neural network

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      Expert Systems with Applications
      Elsevier BV

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          Extreme learning machine: Theory and applications

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            Modeling chickenpox disease with fractional derivatives: From caputo to atangana-baleanu

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              Forecasting of COVID-19 pandemic: From integer derivatives to fractional derivatives

              In this work, a new compartmental mathematical model of COVID-19 pandemic has been proposed incorporating imperfect quarantine and disrespectful behavior of the citizens towards lockdown policies, which are evident in most of the developing countries. An integer derivative model has been proposed initially and then the formula for calculating basic reproductive number R 0 of the model has been presented. Cameroon has been considered as a representative for the developing countries and the epidemic threshold R 0 has been estimated to be  ∼ 3.41 ( 95 % C I : 2.2 − 4.4 ) as of July 9, 2020. Using real data compiled by the Cameroonian government, model calibration has been performed through an optimization algorithm based on renowned trust-region-reflective (TRR) algorithm. Based on our projection results, the probable peak date is estimated to be on August 1, 2020 with approximately 1073 ( 95 % C I : 714 − 1654 ) daily confirmed cases. The tally of cumulative infected cases could reach  ∼ 20, 100 ( 95 % C I : 17 , 343 − 24 , 584 ) cases by the end of August 2020. Later, global sensitivity analysis has been applied to quantify the most dominating model mechanisms that significantly affect the progression dynamics of COVID-19. Importantly, Caputo derivative concept has been performed to formulate a fractional model to gain a deeper insight into the probable peak dates and sizes in Cameroon. By showing the existence and uniqueness of solutions, a numerical scheme has been constructed using the Adams-Bashforth-Moulton method. Numerical simulations enlightened the fact that if the fractional order α is close to unity, then the solutions will converge to the integer model solutions, and the decrease of the fractional-order parameter (0  <  α  <  1) leads to the delaying of the epidemic peaks.
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                Author and article information

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                Journal
                Expert Systems with Applications
                Expert Systems with Applications
                Elsevier BV
                09574174
                March 2024
                March 2024
                : 238
                : 121750
                Article
                10.1016/j.eswa.2023.121750
                7596a924-0cd3-4daf-ba62-96d1eebb56ae
                © 2024

                https://www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/

                https://doi.org/10.15223/policy-017

                https://doi.org/10.15223/policy-037

                https://doi.org/10.15223/policy-012

                https://doi.org/10.15223/policy-029

                https://doi.org/10.15223/policy-004

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