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      Presenting Symptoms and Predictors of Poor Outcomes Among 2,184 Patients with COVID-19 in Lagos State, Nigeria

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          Highlights

          • Cough, fever and difficulty in breathing were the most common COVID-19 symptoms.

          • Severity of symptoms at presentation was the most significant predictor of death.

          • Difficulty in breathing was the most significant symptom predictive of death.

          • The case fatality rate was 4.3%.

          Abstract

          Introduction

          Lagos state remains the epicentre of COVID-19 in Nigeria. We describe the symptoms and signs of the first 2,184 PCR-confirmed COVID-19 patients admitted at COVID-19 treatment centers in Lagos State. We also assessed the relationship between patients’ presenting symptoms, sociodemographic and clinical characteristics and COVID-19 deaths..

          Methods

          Medical records of PCR-confirmed COVID-19 patients were extracted and analyzed for their symptoms, symptom severity, presence of comorbidities and outcome.

          Results

          The ages of the patients ranged from 4 days to 98 years with a mean of 43.0(16.0) years. Of the patients who presented with symptoms, cough (19.3%) was the most common presenting symptom. This was followed by fever (13.7%) and difficulty in breathing, (10.9%). The most significant clinical predictor of death was the severity of symptoms and signs at presentation. Difficulty in breathing was the most significant symptom predictor of COVID-19 death (OR:19.26 95% CI 10.95-33.88). The case fatality rate was 4.3%.

          Conclusion

          Primary care physicians and COVID-19 frontline workers should maintain a high index of suspicion and prioritize the care of patients presenting with these symptoms. Community members should be educated on such predictors and ensure that patients with these symptoms seek care early to reduce the risk of deaths associated with COVID-19.

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          Most cited references28

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          [The epidemiological characteristics of an outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus diseases (COVID-19) in China].

          (2020)
          Objective: An outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus diseases (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China has spread quickly nationwide. Here, we report results of a descriptive, exploratory analysis of all cases diagnosed as of February 11, 2020. Methods: All COVID-19 cases reported through February 11, 2020 were extracted from China's Infectious Disease Information System. Analyses included: 1) summary of patient characteristics; 2) examination of age distributions and sex ratios; 3) calculation of case fatality and mortality rates; 4) geo-temporal analysis of viral spread; 5) epidemiological curve construction; and 6) subgroup analysis. Results: A total of 72 314 patient records-44 672 (61.8%) confirmed cases, 16 186 (22.4%) suspected cases, 10567 (14.6%) clinical diagnosed cases (Hubei only), and 889 asymptomatic cases (1.2%)-contributed data for the analysis. Among confirmed cases, most were aged 30-79 years (86.6%), diagnosed in Hubei (74.7%), and considered mild (80.9%). A total of 1 023 deaths occurred among confirmed cases for an overall case-fatality rate of 2.3%. The COVID-19 spread outward from Hubei sometime after December 2019 and by February 11, 2020, 1 386 counties across all 31 provinces were affected. The epidemic curve of onset of symptoms peaked in January 23-26, then began to decline leading up to February 11. A total of 1 716 health workers have become infected and 5 have died (0.3%). Conclusions: The COVID-19 epidemic has spread very quickly. It only took 30 days to expand from Hubei to the rest of Mainland China. With many people returning from a long holiday, China needs to prepare for the possible rebound of the epidemic.
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            Prevalence of Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infection

            Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has spread rapidly throughout the world since the first cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) were observed in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. It has been suspected that infected persons who remain asymptomatic play a significant role in the ongoing pandemic, but their relative number and effect have been uncertain. The authors sought to review and synthesize the available evidence on asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. Asymptomatic persons seem to account for approximately 40% to 45% of SARS-CoV-2 infections, and they can transmit the virus to others for an extended period, perhaps longer than 14 days. Asymptomatic infection may be associated with subclinical lung abnormalities, as detected by computed tomography. Because of the high risk for silent spread by asymptomatic persons, it is imperative that testing programs include those without symptoms. To supplement conventional diagnostic testing, which is constrained by capacity, cost, and its one-off nature, innovative tactics for public health surveillance, such as crowdsourcing digital wearable data and monitoring sewage sludge, might be helpful.
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              Development and Validation of a Clinical Risk Score to Predict the Occurrence of Critical Illness in Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19

              Early identification of patients with novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) who may develop critical illness is of great importance and may aid in delivering proper treatment and optimizing use of resources.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Int J Infect Dis
                Int J Infect Dis
                International Journal of Infectious Diseases
                The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases.
                1201-9712
                1878-3511
                16 October 2020
                16 October 2020
                Affiliations
                [a ]Lagos State Ministry of Health
                [b ]College of Medicine University of Lagos
                [c ]Lagos State Primary Health Care Board
                [d ]Lagos University Teaching Hospital
                [e ]Lagos State University College of Medicine
                [f ]Mainland Hospital, Yaba, Lagos, Nigeria
                [g ]Lagos State Biobank
                [h ]World Health Organization, Nigeria Office
                [i ]Nigeria Centre for Disease Control
                [j ]Lagos State University Teaching Hospital
                Author notes
                [* ]Corresponding author.
                Article
                S1201-9712(20)32228-1
                10.1016/j.ijid.2020.10.024
                7566672
                33075534
                7309cf13-73df-4039-ba12-f124b7b20f33
                © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases.

                Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.

                History
                : 2 September 2020
                : 6 October 2020
                : 8 October 2020
                Categories
                Article

                Infectious disease & Microbiology
                covid-19,symptoms,death,nigeria
                Infectious disease & Microbiology
                covid-19, symptoms, death, nigeria

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