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      Study of epidemiological behaviour of malaria and its control in the Purulia district of West Bengal, India (2016–2020)

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          Abstract

          Purulia is a malaria-prone district in West Bengal, India, with approximately half of the blocks defined as malaria endemic. We analyzed the malaria case in each block of the Purulia district from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2020. As per the API, 20 blocks of Purulia were assigned to four different categories (0–3) and mapped using ArcGIS software. An exponential decay model was fitted to forecast the trend of malaria cases for each block of Purulia (2021–2025). There was a sharp decrease in total malaria cases and API from 2016 to 2020 due to the mass distribution of LLINs. The majority of cases (72.63%) were found in ≥ 15-year age group. Males were more prone to malaria (60.09%). Malaria was highly prevalent among Scheduled Tribes (48.44%). Six blocks were reported in Category 3 (high risk) and none in Category 0 (no risk) in 2016, while no blocks were determined to be in Category 3, and three blocks were in Category 0 in 2020. The exponential decay model prediction is oriented towards gaining malaria-free status in thirteen blocks of Purulia by 2025. This study will incite the government to uphold and strengthen the current efforts to meet the malaria elimination goals.

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          The changing epidemiology of malaria elimination: new strategies for new challenges.

          Malaria-eliminating countries achieved remarkable success in reducing their malaria burdens between 2000 and 2010. As a result, the epidemiology of malaria in these settings has become more complex. Malaria is increasingly imported, caused by Plasmodium vivax in settings outside sub-Saharan Africa, and clustered in small geographical areas or clustered demographically into subpopulations, which are often predominantly adult men, with shared social, behavioural, and geographical risk characteristics. The shift in the populations most at risk of malaria raises important questions for malaria-eliminating countries, since traditional control interventions are likely to be less effective. Approaches to elimination need to be aligned with these changes through the development and adoption of novel strategies and methods. Knowledge of the changing epidemiological trends of malaria in the eliminating countries will ensure improved targeting of interventions to continue to shrink the malaria map. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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            Malaria

            Malaria is caused in humans by five species of single-celled eukaryotic Plasmodium parasites (mainly Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax) that are transmitted by the bite of Anopheles spp. mosquitoes. Malaria remains one of the most serious infectious diseases; it threatens nearly half of the world's population and led to hundreds of thousands of deaths in 2015, predominantly among children in Africa. Malaria is managed through a combination of vector control approaches (such as insecticide spraying and the use of insecticide-treated bed nets) and drugs for both treatment and prevention. The widespread use of artemisinin-based combination therapies has contributed to substantial declines in the number of malaria-related deaths; however, the emergence of drug resistance threatens to reverse this progress. Advances in our understanding of the underlying molecular basis of pathogenesis have fuelled the development of new diagnostics, drugs and insecticides. Several new combination therapies are in clinical development that have efficacy against drug-resistant parasites and the potential to be used in single-dose regimens to improve compliance. This ambitious programme to eliminate malaria also includes new approaches that could yield malaria vaccines or novel vector control strategies. However, despite these achievements, a well-coordinated global effort on multiple fronts is needed if malaria elimination is to be achieved.
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              Indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on malaria intervention coverage, morbidity, and mortality in Africa: a geospatial modelling analysis

              Background Substantial progress has been made in reducing the burden of malaria in Africa since 2000, but those gains could be jeopardised if the COVID-19 pandemic affects the availability of key malaria control interventions. The aim of this study was to evaluate plausible effects on malaria incidence and mortality under different levels of disruption to malaria control. Methods Using an established set of spatiotemporal Bayesian geostatistical models, we generated geospatial estimates across malaria-endemic African countries of the clinical case incidence and mortality of malaria, incorporating an updated database of parasite rate surveys, insecticide-treated net (ITN) coverage, and effective treatment rates. We established a baseline estimate for the anticipated malaria burden in Africa in the absence of COVID-19-related disruptions, and repeated the analysis for nine hypothetical scenarios in which effective treatment with an antimalarial drug and distribution of ITNs (both through routine channels and mass campaigns) were reduced to varying extents. Findings We estimated 215·2 (95% uncertainty interval 143·7–311·6) million cases and 386·4 (307·8–497·8) thousand deaths across malaria-endemic African countries in 2020 in our baseline scenario of undisrupted intervention coverage. With greater reductions in access to effective antimalarial drug treatment, our model predicted increasing numbers of cases and deaths: 224·1 (148·7–326·8) million cases and 487·9 (385·3–634·6) thousand deaths with a 25% reduction in antimalarial drug coverage; 233·1 (153·7–342·5) million cases and 597·4 (468·0–784·4) thousand deaths with a 50% reduction; and 242·3 (158·7–358·8) million cases and 715·2 (556·4–947·9) thousand deaths with a 75% reduction. Halting planned 2020 ITN mass distribution campaigns and reducing routine ITN distributions by 25%–75% also increased malaria burden to a total of 230·5 (151·6–343·3) million cases and 411·7 (322·8–545·5) thousand deaths with a 25% reduction; 232·8 (152·3–345·9) million cases and 415·5 (324·3–549·4) thousand deaths with a 50% reduction; and 234·0 (152·9–348·4) million cases and 417·6 (325·5–553·1) thousand deaths with a 75% reduction. When ITN coverage and antimalarial drug coverage were synchronously reduced, malaria burden increased to 240·5 (156·5–358·2) million cases and 520·9 (404·1–691·9) thousand deaths with a 25% reduction; 251·0 (162·2–377·0) million cases and 640·2 (492·0–856·7) thousand deaths with a 50% reduction; and 261·6 (167·7–396·8) million cases and 768·6 (586·1–1038·7) thousand deaths with a 75% reduction. Interpretation Under pessimistic scenarios, COVID-19-related disruption to malaria control in Africa could almost double malaria mortality in 2020, and potentially lead to even greater increases in subsequent years. To avoid a reversal of two decades of progress against malaria, averting this public health disaster must remain an integrated priority alongside the response to COVID-19. Funding Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; Channel 7 Telethon Trust, Western Australia.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                tkdolai@hotmail.com
                amitmandal08@gmail.com
                ikbal.agah.ince@gmail.com
                Journal
                Sci Rep
                Sci Rep
                Scientific Reports
                Nature Publishing Group UK (London )
                2045-2322
                12 January 2022
                12 January 2022
                2022
                : 12
                : 630
                Affiliations
                [1 ]GRID grid.460977.b, Chemical Biology Laboratory, Department of Sericulture, , Raiganj University, ; North Dinajpur, West Bengal 733134 India
                [2 ]GRID grid.416241.4, Hematology Department, , Nil Ratan Sircar Medical College & Hospital, ; Kolkata, 700014 India
                [3 ]GRID grid.444729.8, ISNI 0000 0000 8668 6322, Department of Statistics, , Tripura University, ; Agartala, Tripura 799022 India
                [4 ]District Public Health Centre, Deben Mahata Government Medical College and Hospital, Purulia, West Bengal 723101 India
                [5 ]GRID grid.412834.8, ISNI 0000 0000 9152 1805, Department of Bio-Medical Laboratory Science & Management, , Vidyasagar University, ; Midnapore, West Bengal 721102 India
                [6 ]GRID grid.418546.a, ISNI 0000 0004 1799 577X, Calcutta School of Tropical Medicine, ; College Square, Kolkata, West Bengal 700073 India
                [7 ]GRID grid.440987.6, ISNI 0000 0001 2259 7889, Department of Statistics, , VisvaBharati University, ; Bolpur, West Bengal 731204 India
                [8 ]GRID grid.444729.8, ISNI 0000 0000 8668 6322, Department of Geography and Disaster Management, , Tripura University, ; Agartala, Tripura 799022 India
                [9 ]GRID grid.460977.b, Department of Microbiology, , Raiganj University, ; North Dinajpur, West Bengal 733134 India
                [10 ]GRID grid.412537.6, ISNI 0000 0004 1768 2925, School of Biotechnology, , Presidency University – 2nd Campus, ; Kolkata, West Bengal 700156 India
                [11 ]GRID grid.445106.2, ISNI 0000 0004 1761 835X, Department of Botany, School of Sciences, Durgapur Regional Centre, , Netaji Subhas Open University, ; West Burdwan, Kolkata, West Bengal 713214 India
                [12 ]GRID grid.59056.3f, ISNI 0000 0001 0664 9773, Laboratory of Molecular Bacteriology, Department of Microbiology, , University of Calcutta, ; Kolkata, 700019 India
                [13 ]GRID grid.460977.b, Department of Economics, , Raiganj University, ; North Dinajpur, West Bengal 733134 India
                [14 ]GRID grid.488643.5, ISNI 0000 0004 5894 3909, Department of Biotechnology, Institution of Health Sciences, , University of Health Sciences, ; Uskudar, Istanbul, 34668 Turkey
                [15 ]GRID grid.411826.8, ISNI 0000 0001 0559 4125, Department of Botany, , Vivekananda Mahavidyalaya, ; Haripal, Hoogly, West Bengal 712405 India
                [16 ]Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Deben Mahata Government Medical College and Hospital, Purulia, West Bengal 723101 India
                [17 ]GRID grid.460977.b, Centre for Nanotechnology Sciences, , Raiganj University, ; North Dinajpur, West Bengal 733134 India
                [18 ]Department of Medical Microbiology, School of Medicine, Acibadem Mehmet Ali Aydınlar University, Ataşehir, Istanbul, 34752 Turkey
                Article
                4399
                10.1038/s41598-021-04399-x
                8755807
                35022476
                721cdcb3-4c7a-49bd-bc7d-ad7ea9015f90
                © The Author(s) 2022

                Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

                History
                : 11 June 2021
                : 7 December 2021
                Funding
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001501, University Grants Commission;
                Award ID: (NTA Ref. No. 201610181190)
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001409, Department of Science and Technology, Ministry of Science and Technology, India;
                Award ID: Inspire Fellowship No. IF190457
                Award Recipient :
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                diseases,health care
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