Empirical transmission advantage of the D614G mutant strain of SARS-CoV-2

Abstract

The SARS-CoV-2 lineage carrying the amino acid change D614G has become the dominant variant in the global COVID-19 pandemic. The rapid spread of the G614 mutant suggests that it may have a transmission advantage over the D614 wildtype. Using our previous epidemiological framework to analyze COVID-19 surveillance and sequence data, we estimated that the G614 mutant is 31% (28-34%) more transmissible than the D614 wildtype. As such, interventions that were previously effective in containing or mitigating the D614 wildtype (e.g. in China, Vietnam, Thailand, etc.) might be less effective against the G614 mutant. Our framework can be readily integrated into current COVID-19 surveillance to monitor the emergence and fitness of mutant strains, such that pandemic surveillance, disease control and development of treatment and vaccines can be adjusted dynamically.