Timing of Renal Support and Outcome of Septic Shock and Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome. A Post Hoc Analysis of the AKIKI Randomized Clinical Trial

Objective To develop a model to assess severity of illness and predict vital status at hospital discharge based on ICU admission data. Design Prospective multicentre, multinational cohort study. Patients and setting A total of 16,784 patients consecutively admitted to 303 intensive care units from 14 October to 15 December 2002. Measurements and results ICU admission data (recorded within ±1 h) were used, describing: prior chronic conditions and diseases; circumstances related to and physiologic derangement at ICU admission. Selection of variables for inclusion into the model used different complementary strategies. For cross-validation, the model-building procedure was run five times, using randomly selected four fifths of the sample as a development- and the remaining fifth as validation-set. Logistic regression methods were then used to reduce complexity of the model. Final estimates of regression coefficients were determined by use of multilevel logistic regression. Variables selection and weighting were further checked by bootstraping (at patient level and at ICU level). Twenty variables were selected for the final model, which exhibited good discrimination (aROC curve 0.848), without major differences across patient typologies. Calibration was also satisfactory (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test Ĥ=10.56, p=0.39, Ĉ=14.29, p=0.16). Customised equations for major areas of the world were computed and demonstrate a good overall goodness-of-fit. Conclusions The SAPS 3 admission score is able to predict vital status at hospital discharge with use of data recorded at ICU admission. Furthermore, SAPS 3 conceptually dissociates evaluation of the individual patient from evaluation of the ICU and thus allows them to be assessed at their respective reference levels. Electronic Supplementary Material Electronic supplementary material is included in the online fulltext version of this article and accessible for authorised users: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00134-005-2763-5

Acute kidney injury (AKI) and sepsis carry consensus definitions. The simultaneous presence of both identifies septic AKI. Septic AKI is the most common AKI syndrome in ICU and accounts for approximately half of all such AKI. Its pathophysiology remains poorly understood, but animal models and lack of histological changes suggest that, at least initially, septic AKI may be a functional phenomenon with combined microvascular shunting and tubular cell stress. The diagnosis remains based on clinical assessment and measurement of urinary output and serum creatinine. However, multiple biomarkers and especially cell cycle arrest biomarkers are gaining acceptance. Prevention of septic AKI remains based on the treatment of sepsis and on early resuscitation. Such resuscitation relies on the judicious use of both fluids and vasoactive drugs. In particular, there is strong evidence that starch-containing fluids are nephrotoxic and decrease renal function and suggestive evidence that chloride-rich fluid may also adversely affect renal function. Vasoactive drugs have variable effects on renal function in septic AKI. At this time, norepinephrine is the dominant agent, but vasopressin may also have a role. Despite supportive therapies, renal function may be temporarily or completely lost. In such patients, renal replacement therapy (RRT) becomes necessary. The optimal intensity of this therapy has been established, while the timing of when to commence RRT is now a focus of investigation. If sepsis resolves, the majority of patients recover renal function. Yet, even a single episode of septic AKI is associated with increased subsequent risk of chronic kidney disease.

To describe risk factors for the development of acute renal failure (ARF) in a population of intensive care unit (ICU) patients, and the association of ARF with multiple organ failure (MOF) and outcome using the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score. Prospective, multicenter, observational cohort analysis. Forty ICUs in 16 countries. All patients admitted to one of the participating ICUs in May 1995, except those who stayed in the ICU for less than 48 h after uncomplicated surgery, were included. After the exclusion of 38 patients with a history of chronic renal failure requiring renal replacement therapy, a total of 1411 patients were studied. Of the patients, 348 (24.7%) developed ARF, as diagnosed by a serum creatinine of 300 micromol/l (3.5 mg/dl) or more and/or a urine output of less than 500 ml/day. The most important risk factors for the development of ARF present on admission were acute circulatory or respiratory failure; age more than 65 years, presence of infection, past history of chronic heart failure (CHF), lymphoma or leukemia, or cirrhosis. ARF patients developed MOF earlier than non-ARF patients (median 24 vs 48 h after ICU admission, p < 0.05). ARF patients older than 65 years with a past history of CHF or with any organ failure on admission were most likely to develop MOF. ICU mortality was 3 times higher in ARF than in other patients (42.8% vs 14.0%, p < 0.01). Oliguric ARF was an independent risk factor for overall mortality as determined by a multivariate regression analysis (OR = 1.59 [CI 95%: 1.23-2.06], p < 0.01). Infection increased the risk of death associated with all factors. Factors that increased the ICU mortality of ARF patients were a past history of hematologic malignancy, age more than 65 years, the number of failing organs on admission and the presence of acute cardiovascular failure. In ICU patients, the most important risk factors for ARF or mortality from ARF are often present on admission. During the ICU stay, other organ failures (especially cardiovascular) are important risk factors. Oliguric ARF was an independent risk factor for ICU mortality, and infection increased the contribution to mortality by other factors. The severity of circulatory shock was the most important factor influencing outcome in ARF patients.